Special Marine Warning 13, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ...CORRECTED FCSTER NUMBER...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
255 AM CST MON 26 JAN 2004

.SHORT TERM...VERY INTERESTING SYNOP PATTERN AT MIDDAY ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH. SEVERAL FEATURES PRESENT.  FIRST...WARM SECTOR (AND MOST
UNSTABLE AIR) THAT WAS OVER GLFMEX AND ASSOC WTORNADO WATCH HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES. YET ANOTHER APPROACHING INTENSE
MID-LEVEL SWAVE OVER S CNTRL LA MOVG NE ALONG BACK EDGE OF DEEP
MOIST BOUNDARY IN WATER VAPOR AND IS FORECAST BY RUC IN SHORT TERM
TO CONTINUE MOVG NEWD THIS AFTERNOON.  RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER SE LA IN RESPONSE. THIS
CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS INTENSE SINCE IT WILL BE ELEVATED
ABOVE PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXS RAIN-COOLED MESO-HIGH.

LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT IF CURRENT MOTION CONTINUES IN
ASSOCW THESE S LA STORMS...THEY WILL TRACK NEWD ON COLD SIDE OF
BOUNDARY (ACROSS OUR CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS) BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS WITH SMALL HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. COULD SEE
LGT-MOD PCPN EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN OVER COASTAL WATERS
AND COASTAL COUNTIES AS SWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

ANOTHER INTERESTING FEATURE...IS WELL-DEFINED COLD WEDGE PUSHING
SEWD INTO ERN 2/3 AL ATTM.  INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH FARTHER SWWD
IT CAN MAKE IT. ATTM...LEADING EDGE IS FROM TCL-50 SW TOI-DHN.

ZONES WERE UPDATED AT 10 AM CST...TO REFLECT ON-GOING SITUATION.

&&

.MARINE...AS THAT STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AREA LATER TONIGHT IT WILL CLEAR OUT THE CONVECTION AND THEN
BRING A STRONG NORTH WIND. CURRENT MODEL OUTPUTS INDICATE GRADIENT
LEVEL KIND NEAR GALE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...SUBSIDING BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THE SHIFTING WIND IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR STEEP
WAVE FACES AND SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC SEA STATE THIS EVENING AS THE NEW
NORTHWEST FETCH BEGINS GENERATING WAVES ATOP THE FORMERLY SOUTHWEST
WIND WAVES WHICH WOULD BE DECAYING INTO SWELL AT THAT STAGE.
ACCORDING TO CURRENT NUMERICAL FORECAST TECHNIQUES...THE SEA STATE
BUILDS QUICKLY FROM 8 TO 10 FT FOR A FETCH OF 80 NM BETWEEN DURATIONS
OF 6 AND 9 HR...PLUS CONSIDERING MAXIMUM COMBINED SEA AS ROOT MEAN
SQUARE OF ALL WAVE FORMS...BELIEVE WE MIGHT KICK THINGS UP A FEW
NOTCHES. WE ARE STILL PONDERING THIS AND WILL FINALIZE THE DISCUSSION
IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL MARINE ZONES TODAY.
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL MARINE ZONES TODAY.
MS...NONE.

&&

05/77

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CST MON JAN 26 2004

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-261800-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
500 AM CST MON JAN 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTERACTS WITH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST COMMON ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BUILD BRIEFLY TO SEVERE LEVELS THIS MORNING WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT...PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGS
AN END TO THE RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

NO HAZAZARDOUS WEATHER IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS FOR SEVERE STORM
OPERATIONS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THE ALABAMA COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST
OF I-65 AND ALL OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
604 AM CST MON JAN 26 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BREWTON                 31.10N 87.07W
01/26/2004                   ESCAMBIA           AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

GB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
637 AM CST MON JAN 26 2004

FLZ003>005-261300-
INLAND OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-
637 AM CST MON JAN 26 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING DETECTED OVER OKALOOSA AND SANTA
ROSA COUNTIES...

AT 634 AM CST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM GOOD HOPE TO NEAR MILTON NEAR WHITING FIELD...
AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
LAUREL HILL AND BAKER THROUGH 700 AM CST.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR
BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE LIKELY. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR
BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CST MONDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
701 AM CST MON JAN 26 2004

FLZ001>004-261400-
COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL SANTA
ROSA-
701 AM CST MON JAN 26 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING DETECTED OVER ESCAMBIA AND SANTA
ROSA COUNTIES...

AT 659 AM CST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR BARTH TO NEAR BELLVIEW...AND
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR
BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE LIKELY. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR
BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CST MONDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
800 AM CST MON JAN 26 2004

ALZ060-FLZ003>006-261500-
COVINGTON-COASTAL OKALOOSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL
SANTA ROSA-
800 AM CST MON JAN 26 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING DETECTED OVER COVINGTON...OKALOOSA
AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES...

AT 758 AM CST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR STEDMAN TO 3 MILES WEST OF GALLIVER...AND
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE STORMS WILL BE FROM NEAR CRESTVIEW TO FLORALA BY 830 AM.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR
BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE LIKELY. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR
BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CST MONDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
948 AM CST MON JAN 26 2004

ALZ056>060-062>064-FLZ001>004-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-262100-
DESTIN TO PENSACOLA OUT 20 NM-DESTIN TO PENSACOLA 20-60 NM OUT-
PENSACOLA TO PASCAGOULA OUT 20 NM-PENSACOLA TO PASCAGOULA 20-
60 NM OUT-MOBILE BAY-BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
MOBILE COASTAL-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-
948 AM CST MON JAN 26 2004

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 2 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR MOBILE...
BALDWIN...BUTLER...CONECUH...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA
ALABAMA...ESCAMBIA FLORIDA...AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES AS WELL AS
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OUT OF THE WATCH AREA.

FLZ005-006-262100-
OKALOOSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA INLAND-
948 AM CST MON JAN 26 2004

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM TODAY. REMEMBER...A TORNADO
WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS
SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.