Alert archive / Florida / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Melbourne, FL
NWS Melbourne, FL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 5, 2004, 6:36 PM EDT for Orange County, Florida. It was in force for 39 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 5, 2004, 6:36 PM EDT (22:36 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 5, 2004, 7:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 39 min
- Issued by
- NWS Melbourne, FL
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Orange County, FL
The radar
The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 59 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Cape Canaveral, FL (KXMR), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 55 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1102 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -26 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 804 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 19 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -13 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 10 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS52 KMLB 052236 SVRMLB FLC095-052315- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 635 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA * UNTIL 715 PM EDT * AT 629 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF CHRISTMAS...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE... OVER WEDGEFIELD AT 640 PM... 5 MILES EAST OF LAKE MARY JANE AT 730 PM EDT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. IF THE STORM APPROACHES YOU...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. LARGE HAIL...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY. TAKE COVER IN A STURDY BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES. LAT...LON 2859 8099 2860 8113 2835 8123 2835 8099 $$ 28
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Melbourne, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 5, 2:02 PM EDT, 4 hours 34 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 5, 2:02 PM EDT, 4 hours 34 minutes before
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 202 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT...FLOW THROUGH LOWER/MID LEVELS IS QUITE WEAK BUT ENOUGH OF A WLY COMPONENT THAT OVERALL DIRECTION OF STORM DRIFT/PROPAGATION WILL BE TOWARD THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING. HAVE PENCILED IN SCATTERED POPS IN ALL AREAS FOR THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS WHERE LACK OF WESTERLY STEER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF RIDGE AXIS MAY LIMIT STORM DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST. POPS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER EAST COAST COUNTIES FROM VOLUSIA TO INDIAN RIVER AND JUST 10% LOWER INLAND. SLOW MOVEMENT WILL MAKE HEAVY RAINS A CONCERN AS WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...ALSO ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR A FEW STRONG/MARG SVR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS INTO THIS EVENING. TUE...ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS PUSHED SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA WITH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF WLYS EVOLVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUE AND WLY GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH TO INHIBIT A FULL BLOWN SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE CAPE. PWATS IN THE AREA OF 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES. FAVORABLE STORM MOTIONS WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES ABOVE CLIMO...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH A SOMEWHAT REDUCED HEAVY RAIN THREAT DUE TO MOTION OF STORMS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. NW STEERING COMPONENT MAY ALLOW STORMS TO ZIP DOWN THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WITH MORE RAPID PROPAGATION. POPS REMAIN WELL WITHIN SCT CATEGORY AREA WIDE. WED...SFC RIDGE SUPPRESSED OVER EXTREME S FL WITH LIGHT TO NW LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL. TAIL END OF DEEP MOISTURE BAND (PWATS 1.9-2.0) AND WEAKENING VORT AXIS PROGD ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF AFTN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FAVORED (40%). WILL GO WITH SCT COVERAGE OVER THE AREA DURING AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY FAVORING INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THU/FRI...TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH ACTIVE SEA BREEZE AND FOCUS TO INTERIOR FOR AFTERNOON STORMS. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MEAN RIDGE POSITION NEAR LAKE OKEE THU WITH A LIFTING NORTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK. WL SHOW UNIFORM 40 PERCENT COVERAGE THU WITH INCREASE OVER INTERIOR VS COAST FOR FRI AS RIDGE LIFTS OVER CENTRAL FL. EXTENDED...AN EASTERLY WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE TWD S FL BY SATURDAY. WL INDICATE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS FRI NGT ACROSS MARTIN/ST. LUCIE WITH SOME LATE NIGHT SHOWER EXPECTED TO MOVE TWD THE COAST INTO SAT. ELY REGIME IN THE LEE OF WAVE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANGE IN SCT CATEGORY AREAWIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE...FORECAST WRITTEN FOR EXPECTED POSITION OF THE RIDGE...WHICH REMAINS SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. MAIN CONCERNS FOR SMALL VESSELS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS DEVELOPING THE COAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY. OFFSHORE GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS 2 FT OF LESS INTO WED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 92 74 92 / 40 50 20 30 MCO 73 93 74 93 / 30 50 20 40 MLB 74 92 74 91 / 40 50 30 30 VRB 75 92 73 91 / 30 50 30 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...GLITTO LONG TERM...PENDERGRAST
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 5, 4:40 AM EDT, 13 hours 56 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 440 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147- 052000- BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-LAKE-MARTIN-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE- ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM- 440 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... ...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS ONCE AGAIN PRIMED FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING LIGHTNING STORMS AS DEEP MOISTURE COMBINES WITH LOCAL SEA AND LAKE BREEZES...AND STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR JUST INLAND FROM THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS...EXTENDING INLAND TO AROUND LAKE GEORGE TO SANFORD...TO ORLANDO...TO OKEECHOBEE...INCLUDING VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES. ...FLOOD IMPACT... STORM MOTION NORTH OF ORLANDO AND CAPE CANAVERAL WILL BE EASTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. TO THE THE SOUTH...MOTION WILL BE GENERALLY SLOWER AND MORE ERRATIC. THE RESULTING HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. ...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT... WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS AND A LITTLE HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING OVER THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF FORT PIERCE INLET. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST. ...WATERSPOUT IMPACT... ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A VERY LIGHT WIND PROFILE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING OVER THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MID WEEK...AND THEN SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS WITHIN STRONGER STORMS. THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AWAY FROM THE COAST TO THE INTERIOR...AND EVENTUALLY INTO WEST FLORIDA BY WEEKS END. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED. CRISTALDI
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 5, 3:18 PM EDT, 3 hours 18 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 318 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 FLZ041-044-052000- INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY- 318 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 ...STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ENTERING NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY... AT 310 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKE GEORGE TO 9 MILES WEST OF PAISLEY. THE LINE WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTH ALONG THIS LINE TOWARD UMATILLA. TORRENTIAL RAINS AND EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. 28
Special weather statement, Jul 5, 4:08 PM EDT, 2 hours 28 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 408 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 FLZ041-141-052100- COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY- 408 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 ...STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN IN INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTY... AT 405 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTY...FROM BARBERVILLE TO DELEON SPRINGS...LAKE HELEN AND DELTONA. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND SMALL HAIL. MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW AND ERRATIC BUT GENERALLY TOWARD THE EAST AT 10 MPH TOWARD THE COAST. 28
Special weather statement, Jul 5, 4:27 PM EDT, 2 hours 9 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 427 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 FLZ045-053-144-052115- ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY- 427 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 ...STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY...WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY... AT 424 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED DEVELOPING STORMS FROM DISNEY NORTH TO LAKE APOPKA. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL AS TORRENTIAL RAIN. MOVEMENT IS SLOW AND ERRATIC. AS A RESULT...TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE. 28
Local storm report, Jul 5, 5:18 PM EDT, 1 hour 18 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
518 PM EDT MON JUL 05 2004
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0405 PM TSTM WND DMG PAISLEY 28.98N 81.54W
07/05/2004 LAKE FL LAW ENFORCEMENT
LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN ON PANTHER ROAD NEAR CR42
&&
JRCSpecial weather statement, Jul 5, 6:06 PM EDT, 30 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 606 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 FLZ045-046-052245- ORANGE-SEMINOLE- 606 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 ...STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY... AT 559 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GENEVA...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH TOWARD CHRISTMAS.
Special weather statement, Jul 5, 6:25 PM EDT, 11 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 625 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 FLZ045-052315- ORANGE- 625 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2004 ...STORMS WITH EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY... AT 620 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LIGHTNING DETECTION EQUIPMENT INDICATED A STORM WITH EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING BETWEEN BITHLO AND CHRISTMAS. ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE BEELINE TOWARD LAKE MARY JANE. SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE STORMS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...TAKE SHELTER IN A BUILDING OR ENCLOSED AUTOMOBILE. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS FOUND ON A BEACH OR GOLF COURSE OFFER NO PROTECTION.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Melbourne, FL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 5, 3:34 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MLB | Lake | 56 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Florida, 2004Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.