Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
202 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2004

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...FLOW THROUGH LOWER/MID LEVELS IS QUITE WEAK BUT ENOUGH OF
A WLY COMPONENT THAT OVERALL DIRECTION OF STORM DRIFT/PROPAGATION
WILL BE TOWARD THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING. HAVE PENCILED IN
SCATTERED POPS IN ALL AREAS FOR THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS WHERE LACK OF WESTERLY STEER
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF RIDGE AXIS MAY LIMIT STORM DRIFT BACK TO THE
EAST. POPS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER EAST COAST COUNTIES FROM VOLUSIA TO
INDIAN RIVER AND JUST 10% LOWER INLAND. SLOW MOVEMENT WILL MAKE
HEAVY RAINS A CONCERN AS WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...ALSO
ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR A FEW STRONG/MARG SVR STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS INTO THIS EVENING.

TUE...ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS PUSHED SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA WITH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF WLYS EVOLVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA ON TUE AND WLY GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH TO
INHIBIT A FULL BLOWN SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE CAPE. PWATS
IN THE AREA OF 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES. FAVORABLE STORM MOTIONS WILL LEAD
TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES ABOVE CLIMO...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH A SOMEWHAT REDUCED HEAVY RAIN THREAT DUE TO MOTION OF
STORMS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. NW STEERING COMPONENT MAY ALLOW STORMS
TO ZIP DOWN THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WITH MORE RAPID PROPAGATION.
POPS REMAIN WELL WITHIN SCT CATEGORY AREA WIDE.

WED...SFC RIDGE SUPPRESSED OVER EXTREME S FL WITH LIGHT TO NW LOW
LVL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL. TAIL END OF DEEP MOISTURE BAND (PWATS
1.9-2.0) AND WEAKENING VORT AXIS PROGD ACROSS SRN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA WHERE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF AFTN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
FAVORED (40%). WILL GO WITH SCT COVERAGE OVER THE AREA DURING
AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY FAVORING INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

THU/FRI...TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH ACTIVE SEA BREEZE AND FOCUS TO
INTERIOR FOR AFTERNOON STORMS. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MEAN RIDGE
POSITION NEAR LAKE OKEE THU WITH A LIFTING NORTHWARD LATER IN THE
WEEK. WL SHOW UNIFORM 40 PERCENT COVERAGE THU WITH INCREASE OVER
INTERIOR VS COAST FOR FRI AS RIDGE LIFTS OVER CENTRAL FL.

EXTENDED...AN EASTERLY WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE TWD S FL BY SATURDAY. WL
INDICATE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS FRI NGT ACROSS MARTIN/ST.
LUCIE WITH SOME LATE NIGHT SHOWER EXPECTED TO MOVE TWD THE COAST
INTO SAT. ELY REGIME IN THE LEE OF WAVE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANGE IN SCT
CATEGORY AREAWIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...FORECAST WRITTEN FOR EXPECTED POSITION OF THE
RIDGE...WHICH REMAINS SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MAIN CONCERNS FOR SMALL VESSELS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
DEVELOPING THE COAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS
LOCALLY. OFFSHORE GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS 2 FT OF LESS INTO
WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  92  74  92  /  40  50  20  30
MCO  73  93  74  93  /  30  50  20  40
MLB  74  92  74  91  /  40  50  30  30
VRB  75  92  73  91  /  30  50  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...GLITTO
LONG TERM...PENDERGRAST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
440 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2004

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
052000-
BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-LAKE-MARTIN-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM-
440 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS ONCE AGAIN PRIMED FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LIGHTNING STORMS AS DEEP MOISTURE COMBINES
WITH LOCAL SEA AND LAKE BREEZES...AND STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ISOLATED STORMS
WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60
MPH AND SMALL HAIL. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR JUST INLAND FROM THE SPACE AND TREASURE
COASTS...EXTENDING INLAND TO AROUND LAKE GEORGE TO SANFORD...TO
ORLANDO...TO OKEECHOBEE...INCLUDING VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN BREVARD
COUNTIES.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
STORM MOTION NORTH OF ORLANDO AND CAPE CANAVERAL WILL BE EASTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH. TO THE THE SOUTH...MOTION WILL BE GENERALLY SLOWER AND
MORE ERRATIC. THE RESULTING HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO
INCHES MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW
LYING AREAS.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS AND A LITTLE HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING OVER THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR
SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF FORT PIERCE INLET. THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A VERY LIGHT WIND PROFILE WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE A THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING OVER THE NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA THROUGH MID WEEK...AND THEN SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS
WITHIN STRONGER STORMS. THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT AWAY FROM THE COAST TO THE INTERIOR...AND EVENTUALLY INTO WEST
FLORIDA BY WEEKS END.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF
NEEDED.

CRISTALDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
228 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2004

FLZ059-051915-
ST. LUCIE-
227 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2004

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL OVER ST LUCIE COUNTY...

AT 227 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER CENTRAL
ST. LUCIE COUNTY NEAR STATE ROAD 70 WEST OF I 95. THE STORM WAS
DRIFTING NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TOWARD THE INTERIOR OF THE COUNTY.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

52

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
318 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2004

FLZ041-044-052000-
INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
318 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2004

...STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL ENTERING NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VOLUSIA
COUNTY...

AT 310 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FROM
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKE GEORGE TO 9 MILES WEST OF PAISLEY.  THE
LINE WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
DEVELOP SOUTH ALONG THIS LINE TOWARD UMATILLA. TORRENTIAL RAINS AND
EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

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