Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Miami, FL

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
937 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2004

.UPDATE...MORNING SOUNDING AT MIAMI SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES. STABILITY CALCULATIONS INDICATE
THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. FAST-MOVING STORMS SHOULD PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CONCERN THIS MORNING WAS THAT FORECAST POPS
OF 60 PERCENT WEST COASTAL ZONES MAY BE TOO HIGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE/RADAR INDICATE THAT NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
THE GULF WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST COASTAL AREAS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA ZONES TODAY. CURRENT
FORECASTS LOOK GOOD.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...APPEARS THAT UPPER TROUGH OVER E U.S. WILL
DIG ABOUT AS FAR S AS IT IS GOING TO AS CORE OF JET ROUNDING BASE
AND HEADING NE. RRQ QUADRANT OF JET OVER N FLA TODAY THOUGH WITH 850
MB 30-35KT JET OVER S CENTRAL FLA/LAKE OKEE REGION. STRONG SW
STEERING FLOW REMAINS OVER CWA AND PWATS HOVERING AROUND 2 INCHES
TODAY AND TUE. WED TROUGH MOVES OFF E U.S. COAST AND SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO SE BEGINS TO REBUILD TOWARD S FLA BUT W FLOW CONTINUES WED
BUT WEAKER. TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER ATLC TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND
RIDGING OVER THE SW U.S. STRENGTHENS IN TURN WITH DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR BEING INJECTED INTO THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE NW THU AND FRI. AN
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO REDEVELOP OVER E U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND BUT
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PWAT.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT...60% POPS CWA TODAY
AND TUE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN A POSSIBILITY MAINLY W COAST
AS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE MAY TRAIN OVER W COAST AND LAKE
OKEE AREA. STRONG STEERING FLOW MAY BE A MITIGATING FACTOR BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SCENARIO WHICH ALREADY IN ZFP PACKAGE.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WED THROUGH SUN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS EACH DAY BUT WITH A DRYING TREND. AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
POPS FROM WED INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT BUOYS GULF/KEYS INDICATING SW/W WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
WITH ATLC BUOYS INDICATING SW 15 TO 20 KNOTS OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.
WILL SHAVE CURRENT FORECAST GULF WATERS TO 15 KNOTS...DROPPING
CAUTION ...AND IN ATLC WATERS OFF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES.
WILL KEEP CAUTION CRITERIA PBI WATERS TODAY. WINDS SW 10 TO 15 KNOTS
ALL GULF /ATLC WATERS TONIGHT/TUE...THEN DECREASE MORE TOWARD THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH EXPECTED WET WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AT PRESENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 92 74 90 74 / 60 30 60 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 77 90 75 / 60 30 60 50
MIAMI           92 77 91 76 / 60 30 60 50
NAPLES          89 78 89 77 / 60 40 60 50
&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
452 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA

FLZ063-066>075-192200-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-DADE METROPOLITAN-EASTERN COLLIER-GLADES-HENDRY-
MAINLAND MONROE-PALM BEACH EASTERN-PALM BEACH WESTERN-
WESTERN BROWARD-WESTERN COLLIER-WESTERN DADE-
452 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA TODAY. A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
SEND BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE RATHER QUICK...A FEW AREAS COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...DUE TO ACTIVITY MOVING OVER THE SAME AREAS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DETAILED GRAPHICS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT MIAMIWEATHER.INFO. FOR
INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT ELTIEMPOENMIAMI.INFO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1125 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2004

FLZ072-191545-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-
1125 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2004

AT 1124 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER PEMBROKE PINES MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS AROUND
40 MPH. LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE DAVIE...COOPER
CITY...PLANTATION...OAKLAND PARK AND POMPANO.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. STAY INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM HAS PASSED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1212 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1213 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1154 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND POMPANO BEACH           26.23N 80.12W
07/19/2004  45 MPH           BROWARD            FL   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

TW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1221 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2004

FLZ066-067-191700-
HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-
1221 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER HENDRY AND WESTERN PALM BEACH
COUNTIES...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND COMMUNITIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORES THROUGH 1 PM.
THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH CLEWISTON...SOUTH BAY AND BELLE GLADE.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. STAY INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORMS HAVE PASSED.