Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
420 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE EXTREME NW PART OF AR WILL MOVE THROUGH
MOST OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE HAS DEVELOPED
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE. A FEW
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SITUATION IS COVERED WELL BY A TORNADO
WATCH AND SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK INCLUDING MOST OF THE CWA UNDER A HIGH
RISK.

STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR NE AR/MO BOOTHEEL. WILL LET THE
WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 PM SINCE SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD DIP BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THAT TIME.

EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE REST OF THE NRN MS COUNTIES
MONDAY. A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS STILL REMAINS OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE
CWA MONDAY...BUT THE SVR RISK IS LOW.

OTHER SHORTWAVES WILL BRING CHCS OF SHWRS/TSTMS LATER IN THE FCST
PERIOD BUT NOTHING LOOKS SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MEG...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY FOR NE AR UNTIL 6 PM.
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM.
MO...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

SWC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
545 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-311100-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
545 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

A MAJOR OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FOR EAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE HIGH RISK AREA IS NORTHWEST OF AN
OXFORD TO CORINTH LINE AND INCLUDES JONESBORO...BLYTHEVILLE...
DYERSBURG...MEMPHIS...JACKSON AND CLARKSDALE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FOR THE
REST OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF AN OXFORD TO CORINTH LINE AND INCLUDES TUPELO.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT PROVIDING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS DURING THE EVENING.
SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.
THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FROM THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE WILL BE OTHER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE WEEK. AT
THIS TIME...THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.

SWC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
841 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 PM     TSTM WND GST     POCAHONTAS              36.26N 90.97W
05/30/2004  60 MPH           RANDOLPH           AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            WINDS GUSTS REPORTED TO 60 MPH

0703 PM     TSTM WND DMG     POCAHONTAS              36.26N 90.97W
05/30/2004                   RANDOLPH           AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

            LARGE TREE LIMBS REPORTED DOWN

0720 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W EGYPT               35.87N 90.95W
05/30/2004  60 MPH           CRAIGHEAD          AR   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            WINDS GUSTS TO 60 MPH

0737 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PIGGOTT                 36.38N 90.20W
05/30/2004                   CLAY               AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN

0738 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 S PARAGOULD           36.00N 90.51W
05/30/2004  60 MPH           GREENE             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GUSTS TO 60 MPH

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PIGGOTT                 36.38N 90.20W
05/30/2004                   CLAY               AR   PUBLIC

            SHEDS DESTROYED...TRAILERS DAMAGED...LOTS OF TREES
            KNOCKED DOWN.

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N WEINER              35.69N 90.90W
05/30/2004                   POINSETT           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES AND SEVERAL TREES REPORTED DOWN NEAR THE

            POINSETT AND CRAIGHEAD COUNTY LINE ALONG STATE HIGHWAY 49

0800 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N CLARKTON            36.48N 89.97W
05/30/2004                   DUNKLIN            MO   AIRPLANE PILOT

            POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN BETWEEN CLARKTON AND MALDEM.

0800 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLARKTON                36.45N 89.97W
05/30/2004                   DUNKLIN            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN IN CLARKTON AND THE NEARBY TOWN
            OF MCGUIRE.

0810 PM     TSTM WND GST     SENATH                  36.13N 90.16W
05/30/2004  60 MPH           DUNKLIN            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

0810 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SENATH                  36.13N 90.16W
05/30/2004                   DUNKLIN            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN

&&

CORDERO