Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
345 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NRN MS WILL RETURN NWD ACROSS THE CWA
TNT-SAT AM. SHWRS/TSTMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN HALF OF
AR WILL SPREAD INTO NE AR THIS EVENING. OTHER SHWRS/TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA TNT DUE TO ELEVATED CONVECTION N OF THE
BOUNDARY...SO EXPECT ALMOST A REPEAT OF LAST TWO NIGHTS WITH SUTTLE
DIFFERENCES. HIGHEST POPS OF SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT WITH MORE FLOODING POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
TONIGHT FOR THAT AREA.

THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH WELL N OF THE CWA BY SAT PM...SO SRLY WINDS
WILL WARM MOIST AIR WILL OVERTAKE WHOLE AREA BY THAT TIME. STILL
EXPECT SOME SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WITH HIGHEST CHCS N AND W OF CWA.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE TSTMS WILL OCCUR LATE SAT
NITE-SUN WITH SVR WX POSSIBLE.

A SFC HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK
PROVIDING COOLER AND DRIER WX TO THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL BE OVER
THE LWR MS VLY LATE TUE AND TO THE EAST WED-FRI. A GRADUAL WARM-UP
WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT CHC OF
PCPN WILL BE FRI WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW.

&&

.MEG...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLOOD WATCH MAINLY N OF I-40.
MS...NONE.
MO...FLOOD WATCH.
TN...FLOOD WATCH MAINLY IN MS RVR COUNTIES N OF MEM.
&&

SWC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
218 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-241100-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
218 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS
CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS RELATIVELY LOW BUT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL RETURN NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS THAT
OCCUR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THOSE PORTIONS OF THE
MID-SOUTH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.

SWC