Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
928 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

.UPDATE...
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEAST AR...THE MO
BOOTHEEL...INTO PART OF NORTHWEST TN FROM 12 AM CDT TO 6 AM CDT
FRIDAY. THE AREAS IS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
HARRISBURG AR TO COVINGTON TENNESSEE TO UNION CITY TENNESSEE.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS / STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THIS AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
FROM THE WEST. SATELLITE / RADARS INDICATE THE STORMS ARE CONTINUING
TO BE HEALTHY. IN ADDITION...WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE WIDESPREAD AREA. FLASH FLOOD VALUES ARE LOW
...MOSTLY BETWEEN 1.2 AND 1.5 INCHES IN A 3 HOUR PERIOD. 00Z
MESOETA CONTINUES TREND OF PREVIOUS RUNS...INDICATING STRONGER
POSITIVE VERTICAL VELOCITIES MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST AR...THE MO
BOOTHEEL...INTO WEST TN DURING THE NIGHT.

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST AND GRIDS ARE HOLDING UP WELL. MOST
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED FOR THE TIME BEING ACROSS OUR
AREA...EXCEPT FOR A THUNDERSTORM NEAR DYERSBURG. WILL NEED TO UPDATE
LATER THIS EVENING TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING. 01Z ISSUANCE FROM SPC
CONTINUES OUR FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE FOR TONIGHT.
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM WESTERN KY NEAR THE MO
BOOTHEEL AND ACROSS NORTHERN AR. ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH IS
MOIST AND UNSTABLE. SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES AS SHOWN BY LAPS
DATA RANGE FROM ABOUT -5 ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AR TO -2 NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS OF THE MIDSOUTH. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ARE
IN THE 60S. 00Z SOUNDING FROM LZK SHOWED A CAPE OF 3135 J/KG WITH 0-3
KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 193 M2/S2. RADARS/SATELLITE SHOW
CONVECTION...SOME SEVERE...FROM SOUTHWESTERN MO INTO NORTHWESTERN AR.
THINK THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD MOVING INTO NORTHEAST AR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THESE STORMS. THINK THAT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AS
THESE STORMS ENTER OUR CWA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM
NORTHEAST AR INTO THE MO BOOTHEEL AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ENHANCES
CLOSER TO THE FRONT. HEAVY RAIN THREAT STILL EXIST FROM NORTHEAST AR
ACROSS THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST TN...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WILL UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.MEG...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLOOD WATCH FROM 12 AM TO 6 AM CDT FRIDAY ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM HARRISBURG TO THE MS RIVER.
MS...NONE.
MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM 12 AM TO 6 AM CDT FRIDAY.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM 12 AM TO 6 AM CDT FRIDAY ALONG AND WEST
OF A COVINGTON TN TO UNION CITY TN LINE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
946 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-231100-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
946 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION TONIGHT. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES MEMPHIS...JONESBORO...
DYERSBURG...JACKSON...OXFORD AND TUPELO.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY ACROSS THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND ON ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE TONIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS THE THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. IN ADDITION...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FROM 12 AM TO 6 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MUCH
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND INTO PARTS OF
EXTREME WEST TENNESSEE. THE AREA OF THE FLOOD WATCH IS ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HARRISBURG ARKANSAS TO COVINGTON TENNESSEE
TO UNION CITY TENNESSEE. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF JONESBORO...
KENNETT...AND DYERSBURG.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
623 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     13 E HENDERSON          35.44N 88.42W
04/22/2004                   CHESTER            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO HOUSES IN THE
            AREA.

&&

MM