Severe Thunderstorm Warning 370, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
200 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS STRETCHING
FROM PARIS TENNESSEE TO WEST HELENA ARKANSAS. THIS LINE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BIG
QUESTION OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS WILL ANYTHING REDEVELOP BEHIND
THIS LINE. REGIONAL RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW SMALL SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. DON/T KNOW IF THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD OR NOT. MODELS ARE SHOWING PRECIPITATION ONLY ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.  WILL WAIT TO MAKE A LAST
MINUTE CALL WHETHER TO KEEP POPS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES OR NOT.

CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. WILL KEEP MENTION OF FOG IN FORECAST.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY IN ADDITION
TO AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR SOUTHWESTERN TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD.

WARM FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH WITH COLD FRONT FAR ENOUGH WEST
TO KEEP THE MIDSOUTH DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH EXPECT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY BRINING DRY
CONDITIONS BACK TO THE MIDSOUTH WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.MEG...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
TN...NONE.

KRS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
400 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-241000-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
400 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH...MAINLY EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

KRS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
412 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

MSZ022-023-232145-

CALHOUN MS-CHICKASAW MS-
412 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...CALHOUN AND CHICKASAW
COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF VARDAMAN AT 412 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 45 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN CALHOUN AND CHICKASAW COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
HOUSTON...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.