Severe Thunderstorm Warning 365, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
200 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS STRETCHING
FROM PARIS TENNESSEE TO WEST HELENA ARKANSAS. THIS LINE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BIG
QUESTION OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS WILL ANYTHING REDEVELOP BEHIND
THIS LINE. REGIONAL RADAR IS SHOWING A FEW SMALL SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. DON/T KNOW IF THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD OR NOT. MODELS ARE SHOWING PRECIPITATION ONLY ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.  WILL WAIT TO MAKE A LAST
MINUTE CALL WHETHER TO KEEP POPS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES OR NOT.

CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. WILL KEEP MENTION OF FOG IN FORECAST.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY IN ADDITION
TO AN UPPER RIDGE ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR SOUTHWESTERN TO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD.

WARM FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH WITH COLD FRONT FAR ENOUGH WEST
TO KEEP THE MIDSOUTH DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH EXPECT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY BRINING DRY
CONDITIONS BACK TO THE MIDSOUTH WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.MEG...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
TN...NONE.

KRS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1100 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-241000-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
1100 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL END ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE DELTA REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER
THE DELTA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND. THE THREAT OF STORMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI DURING THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KRS