Severe Thunderstorm Warning 317, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
200 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
CWA. THE DEVELOPMENT IS IN RESPONSE TO A INVERTED SFC TROUGH LOCATED
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND A WEAK UPPER VORT. UPPER VORT WILL BE
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD...BUT WILL STAY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ONCE UPPER VORT MOVES OUT OF CWA...EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
CONTROL. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...FORECAST
DEPENDS ON LOCATION OF IVAN. CURRENT NHC TRACK KEEPS IVAN FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO KEEP RAIN OUT OF CWA...BUT ANY WESTWARD SHIFT WOULD BRING
PRECIP INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. STAY TUNED. FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL CONTINUE DRY WEATHER WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS.
&&

.MEG...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

KRS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
253 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-131000-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
253 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPOTTERS
ARE ASKED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE SITUATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
116 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004

TNZ004-121845-
HENRY TN-
116 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...HENRY COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF COTTAGE GROVE AT
116 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN HENRY COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
209 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004

TNZ004-121945-
HENRY TN-
209 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...HENRY COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER PARIS AT 209 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN HENRY COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF PARIS...SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
239 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004

TNZ090-122015-
HARDEMAN TN-
239 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...HARDEMAN COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES WEST OF POCAHONTAS AT 239
PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN HARDEMAN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
241 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004

MSZ003-004-122015-
BENTON MS-TIPPAH MS-
241 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...BENTON AND TIPPAH
COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF BLUE MOUNTAIN
AT 241 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN BENTON AND TIPPAH COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
RIPLEY...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
353 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             MILAN                   35.92N 88.75W
09/12/2004  1.00 INCH        GIBSON             TN   AMATEUR RADIO

0352 PM     HAIL             MILAN                   35.92N 88.75W
09/12/2004  1.75 INCH        GIBSON             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JFB