Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
212 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL FACTORS COMING TOGETHER FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...PULSE TYPE STORMS WITH MICROBURST POTENTIAL
BEING FAVORED WITH 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWING DRY AIR ALOFT. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS INCREASING CUMULUS ALONG BOUNDARY FROM
WESTERN KY ACROSS THE MO BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHERN AR. THIS BOUNDARY
IS MORE ALONG THE DEWPOINT GRADIENT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S AHEAD OF IT...DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWS CAPES OF 2800 TO 4000
J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH THE CAP ERODED. AS A RESULT...
THINK THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALSO...KEEPING AN EYE ON THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST AR. THINK THESE STORMS
WILL MOVE TOWARD EAST-CENTRAL AR/SOUTHWEST TN. ANOTHER FACTOR FOR
TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT. MESOETA INDICATES SOME SHOWERS
OCCURRING WITH THIS FEATURE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MESOETA IN THE COMING FORECAST AS THE GFS SEEMS
TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL MS THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF
MORNING SHOWERS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO PARTS OF NORTH MS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO NEARNESS OF THE FRONT.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL FEED LOWER DEWPOINTS
INTO ALL THE MIDSOUTH. WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR...WE CAN EXPECT
SOME REFRESHINGLY COOL TEMPERATURES. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS MEAN LAYER RH VALUES REMAIN LOW.

MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY CAUSING A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL
FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MEG...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1220 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-031100-
ALCORN-BENTON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DECATUR-DESOTO-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-
POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-
YALOBUSHA-
1220 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE
MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ARE THE MAIN THREATS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. SOME STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
122 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1217 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ABERDEEN                33.83N 88.55W
06/02/2004                   MONROE             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

&&

VALLE