Flash Flood Warning 94, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 280829
FFSMAF
TXC165-281030-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
329 AM CDT WED JUL 28 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 530 AM CDT FOR GAINES
COUNTY...

AT 324 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED WATER COVERING THE 
EAST BOUND LANE OF U.S. HIGHWAY 180 8 MILES EAST OF SEMINOLE. 

AT 328 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE 
HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINFALL WERE BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OF 
GAINES COUNTY. HOWEVER...RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE AT LEAST 2 INCHES 
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER U.S. HIGHWAY 180 BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MILES EAST 
OF SEMINOLE SINCE 2 AM CDT. RUNOFF WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL 
FLASH FLOODING ALONG OR NEAR U.S. HIGHWAY 180.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. ACT QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3291 10299 3257 10295 3257 10223 3296 10243

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
203 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004

.SHORT TERM..
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.  AN MCV CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY OVER PECOS COUNTY MOVING NNE INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN.
THIS ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP OUR
RAIN CHANCES UP TONIGHT.  WE WILL STILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY FOR
PERIODIC HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SOME OF THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT SINCE WE
WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED.  ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING IN LOCAL
AREAS.  DO NOT THINK THE THREAT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.  THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING WILL
REMAIN MAINLY IN EDDY COUNTY...AND ALSO IN THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...
WE SHOULD HAVE LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
EASTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WE DO HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHERN NM/NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AREA RIGHT NOW THAT WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF
THE REGION...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND IT AS CAN BE SEEN IN WV
IMAGERY.  THIS SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.  THE LOWER LAYERS WILL STILL REMAIN MOIST.
LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES TOMORROW. THESE
CLOUDS ALONG WITH ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THEIR
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING AS FAST AS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING.  WILL GO
LOWER THAN GUIDANCE MOST AREAS FOR TOMORROW...CONSIDERING THE ADDED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN AZ...WITH A TRAILING TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL SUPPLY
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES.  ETA/GFS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLING IN THE CWA ON
THURSDAY BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE.  THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER MOST OF
THE CWA.

BY FRIDAY THE 500MB RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE OVER OUR REGION...PUSHING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO
THE EAST.  WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY AS
WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND
GOOD HEATING THAT COULD INDUCE DIURNAL CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL.  WE
WILL BEGIN WARMING BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY...
AND REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             66  83  69  90 /  60  30  20  20
CARLSBAD NM               63  90  68  93 /  40  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                 67  86  69  92 /  60  30  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX          68  86  68  92 /  60  30  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX         60  85  63  86 /  30  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                  64  87  66  92 /  40  20  20  30
MARFA TX                  58  81  59  87 /  50  20  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   65  86  69  91 /  60  30  20  30
ODESSA TX                 65  86  69  92 /  60  30  20  30
WINK TX                   66  92  70  95 /  50  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

&&

20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
205 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-281000-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
205 PM CDT (105 PM MDT) TUE JUL 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TONIGHT.
RAINFALL WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN
AND THE EXTREME WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. IN ADDITION ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN THE EDDY COUNTY PLAINS COULD ALSO PRODUCE
AREAS OF HIGH WATER IN LOW WATER CROSSINGS OR LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ALTHOUGH SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...SPOTTER GROUPS
AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION AND BE PREPARED SHOULD HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
THREATEN THE AREA.

12