Flash Flood Warning 219, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
227 PM CST MON NOV 15 2004

.SHORT TERM...
HEAVY RAIN EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A FEW BREAKS OR LULLS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ACTIVITY.  FAIRLY DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...BUT CAN SEE ENHANCED TOPS IN IR IMAGERY
MOVING OVER THE AREA...PERIODICALLY PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.  THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP OUR CWA IN A FAVORED REGION FOR RAIN.  PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS LOW.  IN
ADDITION TO THE PACIFIC MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ADVECT SFC DEWPOINTS OF 50F TO
60F INTO THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA.  CAN ALREADY SEE DEWPOINTS
INCREASING ACROSS AREAS TO OUR EAST.  WAA WILL ALSO BE TAKING PLACE
IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHICH WILL HELP
SET UP A BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHEASTERN NM SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TX.  THIS
WILL COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM ENERGY AND EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES TO PRODUCE RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHEASTERN NM...AND ALSO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND BIG BEND AREA.  ALL THIS SAID...WILL CONTINUE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR TONIGHT.

WILL ALLOW THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TO
EXPIRE...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THERE...AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LOW...WHICH WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN SONORA TUESDAY
MORNING...WILL LURCH EASTWARD DURING THE DAY.  THEREFORE...CWA WILL
BE UNDER A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS CONTINUE TO WHEEL NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA.  IN
ADDITION TO TSRA INCREASING RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE THEM MORE.  ALL IN ALL...THINK THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON REMAINS A GOOD IDEA.  MAY HAVE
TO EXTEND THE WATCH...BUT WILL ALLOW MID SHIFT TO ASSESS THE
SITUATION...AND PROLONG THE WATCH THEN.

MODELS TRANSLATING UPPER LOW EASTWARD TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AFTER SEEING THE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS SO FAR ON
THIS STORM SYSTEM...WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE THE HIGHER POPS IN ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THERE/S MORE CERTAINTY ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AS
WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER PERSIST.  HAVE ONLY MADE GENERAL
TWEAKS OUT TO THURSDAY.

WILL LOOK FOR SOME DRYING OUT IN EARNEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS AWAY.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ANY RESPITE WILL
BE SHORT LIVED SINCE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE
ROCKIES.  THIS TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT...
WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT.  THERE WAS
ALREADY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WHICH WILL REMAIN.
DID TWEAK SOME OF THE TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD...BUT NOT MUCH AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             51  59  52  62 /  90 100  70  80
CARLSBAD NM               42  53  47  61 / 100  90  60  50
DRYDEN TX                 54  63  53  66 /  90  90  70  60
FORT STOCKTON TX          48  62  50  63 / 100  90  70  60
GUADALUPE PASS TX         34  53  42  57 / 100  90  50  30
HOBBS NM                  46  55  47  60 / 100  90  70  60
MARFA TX                  45  57  42  60 / 100  90  60  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   49  60  52  62 / 100 100  70  70
ODESSA TX                 49  60  51  62 / 100 100  70  70
WINK TX                   47  62  51  66 / 100  90  70  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR ALL AREAS.
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR ALL AREAS.

&&

20/67

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
250 PM CST MON NOV 15 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-161000-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
250 PM CST (150 PM MST) MON NOV 15 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...
AS WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE...IN ADDITION TO EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTAIN BURSTS OF HEAVY
RAIN.  DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINS...AREAS THAT RECEIVE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TONIGHT MAY EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY...PROLONGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING.  THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.