Flash Flood Warning 221, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 162037
FFSMAF
TXC227-162230-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
234 PM CST TUE NOV 16 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 430 PM CST FOR HOWARD
COUNTY...

AT 228 PM CST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS CONTINUED TO REPORT 
THAT FARM TO MARKET ROAD 2230 WAS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.  THE 
HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS MOVED OUT OF HOWARD COUNTY...BUT RUNOFF FROM 
EARLY RAINS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS 
HOWARD COUNTY.  

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...BIG 
SPRING...COAHOMA AND FAIRVIEW.

FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES...LOW 
WATER CROSSINGS... AND LOW LYING FARMLAND IS LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE 
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. MOST FLOODING DEATHS ARE PREVENTABLE. TURN
AROUND... DONT DROWN.

TO REPORT FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

LAT...LON 3211 10154 3209 10155 3209 10168 3251 10167
      3251 10119 3245 10119 3243 10117 3210 10118

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
421 AM CST TUE NOV 16 2004

.SHORT TERM...
THE CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW OVER SONORA MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWEST TEXAS TEXAS...BECOMING MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH TIME AND CONTINUING TO EJECT PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SE NEW MEXICO TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  STRONG LARGE SCALE DEEP LAYER ASCENT...INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIFLUENCE...AND ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT ONGOING LONG DURATION RAINFALL
EVENT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SATELLITE IS INDICATING AN AREA OF 1.5-INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BEING ADVECTED INTO WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING AIDED BY 70KT
SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
MEANWHILE...WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAS AIDED
IN GENERATING EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY COLD CLOUD
TOPS...WITH THIS CONVECTION MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PECOS
INTO PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN THIS MORNING.

QPF GRIDS WILL THUS REFLECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE
HALF INCH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY.
WILL EXTEND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WEST TEXAS AND SE NEW
MEXICO UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD...
INDICATIONS ARE THE HEAVIER CONVECTION WILL BE SHIFTED/FOCUSED EAST
OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SPEEDING THE
SYSTEM UP AGAIN PER 2 UPSTREAM TROUGHS/LOW APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST. DID REDUCE THE POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN
SECTIONS WHERE GREATEST CONFIDENCE AGAINST A FLIP-FLOP SCENARIO. DID
KEEP LIKELY POPS AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM. LATER SHIFTS CAN CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN POPS IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES.

FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WENT WITH A SLIGHT RAIN SHOWER POP
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A NORTHERN
STREAM COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

KEPT ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS FRIDAY DUE TO UPPER FORCING FROM THE WESTERN AMPLIFYING
UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH.

KEPT 20 POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER AS THE TROUGH SENDS A COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE PERTAINING TO THE EVOLVING TROUGH VS CLOSED LOW ACROSS
THE WESTERN/CENTRAL UNITED STATES...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE AT LEAST
A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER COOLER AIR SINKING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD MEXICO IF SYSTEM REMAINS OPEN. REGARDLESS...STRENGTH OF
THE SLOW MOVING OPEN TROUGH WOULD ARGUE FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE
MOUNTAINS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE MIX OR FROZEN/FREEZING
PRECIPITATION.

CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT MEXMAF HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             58  50  62  47 / 100  70  60  20
CARLSBAD NM               54  43  61  46 /  90  60  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 62  50  66  53 / 100  70  60  10
FORT STOCKTON TX          57  48  63  50 / 100  70  40  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX         52  41  57  43 /  90  50   0  10
HOBBS NM                  53  44  60  46 / 100  70  30  20
MARFA TX                  56  39  60  42 /  90  60  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   58  49  62  47 / 100  70  50  20
ODESSA TX                 57  48  62  47 / 100  70  50  20
WINK TX                   56  47  66  49 / 100  70  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT CST (11 PM MST) ALL
     ZONES.
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY THROUGH 11 PM MST GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
     AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS NMZ27>29-33-34

&&

01/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
400 AM CST TUE NOV 16 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-162100-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
400 AM CST (300 AM MST) TUE NOV 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  DUE TO THE ALREADY
SATURATED SOILS...AREAS THAT RECEIVE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY MAY
EXPERIENCE ACCELERATED RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.