Flash Flood Warning 173, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 281309
FFSMAF
TXC135-281730-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
808 AM CDT TUE SEP 28 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1230 PM CDT FOR ECTOR
COUNTY...

AT 800 AM CDT...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUED TO FALL OVER MUCH 
OF ECTOR COUNTY.  THE ECTOR COUNTY INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICT 
REPORTED THAT FARM TO MARKET ROAD 866 WAS CLOSED FROM I-20 TO 20TH 
STREET DUE TO 2 TO 3 FEET OF WATER OVER THE ROAD.  HIGH WATER 
EVACUATIONS WERE BEING PERFORMED AT 10TH AND REDONDO BECAUSE OF 2 
1/2 FEET OF WATER COVERING THE INTERSECTION.  IN ADDITION... 
EVACUATIONS WERE ALSO BEING DONE AT THE 9000 BLOCK OF 23RD STREET.  
PORTIONS OF PALOMINO...KNOX AND REDONDO WERE ALSO CLOSED.  

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS 
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY. 
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. MOST FLOODING DEATHS ARE PREVENTABLE. TURN 
AROUND... DONT DROWN.

FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS... STREETS AND UNDERPASSES...LOW
WATER CROSSINGS... AND LOW LYING FARMLAND IS LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS.

TO REPORT FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

LAT...LON 3166 10279 3167 10230 3208 10230 3208 10278

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
418 AM CDT TUE SEP 28 2004

.SHORT TERM...
HAVE HAD EXTREME AWIPS/GFE PROBLEMS THIS MORNING WITH NO MODEL DATA
COMING IN BEFORE 3 AM... SO BASED ON FLOODING PROBLEMS PAST FEW
DAYS... RECENT RADAR TRENDS... AND VERY LIMITED MODEL DATA DECIDED
TO EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREA THROUGH TODAY.  WATCH MAY BE
REFINED/NARROWED AT A LATTER TIME.  RADAR/SATELLITE DATA INDICATES
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER TRANS PECOS WITH PRECIP ROTATING AROUND IT.
ONE RAIN AREA MOVING EAST THROUGH THE LOWER TRANS PECOS WITH ANOTHER
ONE MOVING WEST THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS.  HAVE ALSO HAD RECENT
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN...BELIEVE
THIS WILL EXPAND THROUGH MORNING HOURS.  ETA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
RAIN ACROSS AREA MUCH OF THE DAY BUT TAPERS IT OFF AS TAKES CENTER
OF UPPER CIRCULATION EAST TOWARD RED RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL STICK WITH LOW POPS THIS EVENING AS MAY BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS.  EXPECT TO SEE DECREASING CLOUD COVER LATE WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TODAY AND BELOW NORMAL READINGS INTO THE MID
50S TOMORROW MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST TO THE ARKLATEX
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF RESPITE
BACK TO THE AREA WITH DRIER WEATHER. HOWEVER...THIS MORNING/S
MESOETA RUN DOES SHOW INCREASING DIVERGENCE ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW/TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WARRANTS
KEEPING 20 POPS IN THE WESTERN ZONES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE NORTHEAST...WITH A
SOUTHWEST/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW PATTERN CONTINUING OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT 20-30 POPS
ORIENTED GENERALLY WEST OF THE PECOS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION
THURSDAY...WITH CONTINUED WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WARRANTS KEEPING LOW ORDER POPS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL
TRANSLATE EAST TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES/SOUTHERN KANSAS VICINITY.
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE
FRIDAY...AND INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
MORNING. COULD SEE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BREAK OUT ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SATURDAY. NO AVAILABLE MODEL DATA TO LOOK FARTHER INTO THE
EXTENDED...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             75  54  76  58 /  50  30  10  10
CARLSBAD NM               72  54  77  56 /  50  20  10  30
DRYDEN TX                 76  59  80  62 /  60  20  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX          75  57  78  61 /  60  20  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX         68  52  72  57 /  40  20  20  40
HOBBS NM                  73  53  78  58 /  50  20  20  30
MARFA TX                  70  48  74  52 /  50  20  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   75  55  77  59 /  60  30  10  10
ODESSA TX                 75  55  78  61 /  60  20  10  10
WINK TX                   77  57  82  63 /  50  20  10  30

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY ALL ZONES UNTIL 28/21Z.
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY ALL ZONES UNTIL 28/21Z.

&&

72/21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
441 AM CDT TUE SEP 28 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-282000-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
441 AM CDT (341 AM MDT) TUE SEP 28 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR ALL OF THE AREA AGAIN TODAY... WITH
LESS OF A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODS TONIGHT.  RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES... EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS... STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS... AND OTHER INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND WEATHER INFORMATION REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING TODAY.