Flash Flood Warning 171, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 280327
FFSMAF
TXC475-280730-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1025 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 230 AM CDT FOR WARD
COUNTY...

AT 1010 PM CDT...A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED WATER FLOODING
ACROSS FARM TO MARKET ROAD 871 AND ACROSS MANY MINOR WARD COUNTY 
ROADS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY...SOUTHEAST 
OF GRANDFALLS.

AT 1020 PM CDT DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF 
OF THE COUNTY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO A HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AGGRAVATING THE FLASH FLOODING.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. ACT QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

LAT...LON 3150 10346 3139 10317 3134 10279 3152 10278
      3163 10281 3164 10349 3157 10349

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
150 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2004

.SHORT TERM...
A CUTOFF LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND TRANSLATING SLOWLY EASTWARD.  SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
EXPECT MOST TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AS SHEAR IS WEAK AND LAPSE
RATES NOT VERY STEEP.  A STORM OR TWO COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL IF
INSOLATION BECOMES GREAT ENOUGH UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MANY STORING STORMS.  WARM CONVEYOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES...BUT TRANSLATING EVER SO SLOWLY
NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE CWA.

UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LUMBER SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT...THEN
OPEN AND BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT
BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO A PASSING CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.  THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RESIDE ALONG AND TO THE EAST
OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE NORTH/
NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE SHOWERS WILL WRAP NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW.  THEREFORE...WILL RETAIN THE HIGHEST POPS AND
CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT FOR THESE AREAS.  EXPECT
MORE SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES UNDER AND TO THE WEST OF THE CUTOFF LOW.
CONSIDERED DROPPING THE FFA OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT
EVEN THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED...SOME INSOLATION...
MARGINALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES.
SINCE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS STILL NEAR ONE INCH THESE LOCATIONS...
SOILS ARE SATURATED...AND TSRA WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE THE FFA GOING OVERNIGHT HERE TOO.

MOS GUIDANCE COMING UP WITH WARMER MAX TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER GFS MOS AS ANY INSOLATION RECEIVED
WILL BE TEMPERED BY EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.  OTHERWISE...TWEAKED WIND
AND DEWPOINT GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...
CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA...FLOODING
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...AND A HOST OF OTHER CONSIDERATIONS WILL LIMIT
THE NUMBER OF CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND DAY 2.  IT DOES APPEAR
WE WILL HAVE ONLY A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER AS A CUTOFF
LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY WEEK/S END.  THIS WILL PUT
THE CWA IN AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE...WITH AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF
LOW EJECTING PERIODIC SHORTWAVES OVER THE CWA.  SINCE IT APPEARS WE
WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND...AND BETTER SHEAR...MAY
EVEN SEE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY WEEK/S END.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             60  75  55  76 /  70  50  30  20
CARLSBAD NM               55  71  53  76 /  70  40  20  20
DRYDEN TX                 62  76  60  80 /  70  60  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX          60  75  58  77 /  70  60  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX         52  66  51  74 /  60  30  20  20
HOBBS NM                  56  72  53  76 /  70  50  20  20
MARFA TX                  50  69  48  73 /  50  40  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   59  75  56  75 /  70  60  30  20
ODESSA TX                 59  75  56  76 /  70  60  20  20
WINK TX                   60  76  57  81 /  70  50  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT ALL ZONES UNTIL 28/10Z.
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT ALL ZONES UNTIL 28/10Z.

&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2004

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-281000-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
230 PM CDT (130 PM MDT) MON SEP 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TONIGHT.  HEAVY
RAINS HAVE FALLEN OVER MANY AREAS SINCE FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN...AND THE UPPER
TRANS PECOS REGION....WHERE SOME AREAS HAVE RECEIVED IN EXCESS OF 10
INCHES OF RAIN.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING THESE AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT WILL AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING
SITUATION.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH.

RIVER LEVELS ON THE RIO GRANDE ARE ELEVATED DUE TO RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINS FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS TO THE BIG BEND REGION SINCE SATURDAY.
A FEW LOCATIONS ARE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...WITH A COUPLE LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING.  THIS FLOODING IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE RIVER LEVELS SLOWLY FALLING
TUESDAY NIGHT.

A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POTENTIALLY AREAS OF FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND WEATHER INFORMATION REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
643 PM CDT MON SEP 27 2004

NMZ028-029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-058>063-067>070-075-082-280200-
ANDREWS-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-DAWSON-ECTOR-
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-GLASSCOCK-HOWARD-LOVING-MARTIN-MIDLAND-
MITCHELL-NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-WARD-WINKLER-
643 PM CDT (543 PM MDT) MON SEP 27 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS RECEIVED A REPORT OF
A FUNNEL CLOUD IN CENTRAL LEA COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN. RADAR IS DETECTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT.

THE AIRMASS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO IS MOIST
AND UNSTABLE. BECAUSE THE AIRMASS IS SO MOIST...TROPICAL FUNNEL
CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP UNDERNEATH THESE STORMS.

TYPICALLY...TROPICAL FUNNELS ARE SHORT-LIVED AND RARELY LAST LONGER
THAN TEN MINUTES. THEY ARE ALSO SMALL AND GROW TO PERHAPS TEN OR
TWENTY YARDS IN DIAMETER. ON RARE OCCASIONS...THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS DO
TOUCH THE GROUND AND BRIEFLY BECOME TORNADOES. WIND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 60 MPH...COMPARABLE
TO A STRONG DUST DEVIL...AND CAN DAMAGE LIGHTWEIGHT STRUCTURES SUCH
AS CARPORTS AND AWNINGS. SINCE THESE TROPICAL FUNNELS ARE BRIEF...
SMALL...AND RELATIVELY WEAK...THEY ARE VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DETECT
WITH DOPPLER RADAR.

ALONG WITH THE TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS...GUSTY WINDS...FLOODING
RAINS...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING MAY ACCOMPANY THESE
STORMS. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR
LOCATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR RADIO
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR THE LATEST IN
WEATHER INFORMATION.