Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
345 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS OKLAHOMA. SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA...BUT THE MAIN SHOW WILL
BE LATER TONIGHT. ETA IS NOT QUITE AS AMBITIOUS AS THE GFS FOR POS
AND QPF. INCREASED POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. 3 TO 8 INCHES
OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH ARKANSAS THE LAST TWO DAYS
AND WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STORMS
DEVELOPING IN OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS TONIGHT. LI/S TO -8
ARE NOTED IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THIS WILL BE ONE AREA TO WATCH
TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
WELL TONIGHT. MOST OF THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT TONIGHT THOUGH. STRONG LIFT IS NOTED EARLY IN THE
DAY SATURDAY ON THE LATEST CROSS SECTIONS...THEN PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
CONTINUES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
BRING AN END TO THE CURRENT PATTERN. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP
AGAIN. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    65  76  61  72 /  60  60  70  80
HARRISON AR       58  69  54  66 /  90 100  60  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    66  75  60  72 /  60  60  70  70
PINE BLUFF AR     65  79  62  73 /  40  60  70  80
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  57  69  55  66 / 100 100  60  60
MONTICELLO AR     66  80  62  74 /  30  50  70  80
SEARCY AR         63  76  61  71 /  60  60  70  80
MOUNT IDA AR      66  74  58  72 /  60  60  70  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   63  72  57  70 /  70  70  70  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 600 AM
CDT SATURDAY FOR ZONES ARZ003>007...ARZ012>016...ARZ021>025...
ARZ030>034...ARZ037>039.
&&

51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
210 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-241000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
210 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF ARKANSAS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA...KEEPING
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN ARKANSAS. ALSO...THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL...SO A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH EXISTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT FOR NORTHERN AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL SECTIONS OF
THE STATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CHANGE SLOWLY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN TO
THE FORECAST MONDAY...AND CONTINUE DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THE REST OF THE NIGHT IN MANY PARTS
OF ARKANSAS.

29

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
950 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-240500-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
950 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

...HEAVY RAINFALL REPORTED FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES...HAS
FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS THROUGH THE 48 HOUR PERIOD ENDING
AT 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE INCH AND GREATER...
HAVE FALLEN BASICALLY NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER.

MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS OCCURED WEDNESDAY...WITH
AMOUNTS AVERAGING 1 TO 4 INCHES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER. THIS SOUTHERN EXTENT IS ALONG A LINE FROM MENA...TO PINE
BLUFF...TO STUTTGART. BOTH CABOT IN LONOKE COUNTY...AND MORRILTON IN
CONWAY COUNTY...REPORTED 4.44 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 24 HOURS. THIS
AREA...HOWEVER...DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH RAINFALL THURSDAY.

NORTHERN ARKANSAS SAW MUCH OF THEIR RAINFALL THURSDAY. THIS AREA
INCLUDES LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM CLARKSVILLE...TO CLINTON...TO
NEWPORT. RAINFALL REPORTS AVERAGED 4 TO 5 INCHES. THE LARGEST
AMOUNT RECEIVED WAS 6.22 INCHES IN ST. PAUL IN MADISON COUNTY.
NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODING REPORTS WERE RECEIVED FROM JASPER IN NEWTON
COUNTY AND MARSHALL IN SEARCY COUNTY...AS WELL AS SEVERAL COUNTY
ROADS FLOODED IN MARION COUNTY.

AGAIN...THESE REPORTS WERE FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE RAINFALL RECEIVED IN NORTH ARKANSAS
THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODED
ROADWAYS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED IN BATESVILLE IN INDEPENDENCE COUNTY...
AND ALSO IN SWIFTON IN JACKSON COUNTY. DUE TO THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL THAT HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST 60 HOURS...GROUND CONDITIONS
ARE VERY MOIST. ANY MORE RAINFALL RECEIVED WILL EXASPERATE THE
SITUATION...WITH MORE FLOODING EXPECTED. MUCH OF NORTHERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS IS UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FOR THE RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND MORE FLOODING MAY OCCUR.

58

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1132 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     HAIL             NEW SPADRA              35.43N 93.52W
04/23/2004  0.88 INCH        JOHNSON            AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1145 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1133 PM     HAIL             CLARKSVILLE             35.46N 93.47W
04/23/2004  1.00 INCH        JOHNSON            AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

1133 PM     HAIL             5 NNE CLARKSVILLE       35.52N 93.44W
04/23/2004  1.00 INCH        JOHNSON            AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN LUDWIG.

&&

22