Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2004

.DISCUSSION...
PATTERN SHOULD FINALLY CHANGE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES AND BRING AN
END TO THE SEIGE OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER...BUT NOT RIGHT
AWAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY GOT PUSHED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS BUT
EXPECT IT TO QUICKLY LIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE DAY. MOST OF THE RAIN
AGAIN IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS BUT IT SHOULD SLOWLY SPREAD TO THE
EAST DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW IN THE WEST STARTS TO MOVE OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL START OUT WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST
INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL IN THE NORTHWEST THEN SHOW INCREASE IN
POPS DURING THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH 90 PERCENT POPS ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL STRESS HEAVY RAIN. THE INSTABILITY AND
DYNAMICS ALSO SUGGEST A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT THAT IS NOT
LOOKING AS SERIOUS AS THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SO WILL PLAY UP THE
HEAVY RAINS BUT NOT PLAY UP SEVERE WEATHER IN THE ZONES. RAIN SHOULD
DECREASE FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND WILL LOWER POPS THERE.
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL DECREASE SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY AND
THE UPPER TROF PASSES OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS EARLY IN
THE EAST BUT HAVE ALL RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST BY THE END OF THE
DAY. A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY. SOME MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL ONLY
FORECAST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR NOW AND NO MENTION OF RAIN.
MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMP FORECASTS.

DUE TO ACTIVE WEATHER...DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO EXTENDED EXCEPT
TO BRING FORECASTS OF SOME ELEMENTS MORE IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    75  61  73  54 /  60  90  80  10
HARRISON AR       68  54  67  48 /  90  90  50  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  61  73  54 /  70  90  70  10
PINE BLUFF AR     78  63  74  54 /  50  90  80  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  68  54  67  48 /  90  90  60  10
MONTICELLO AR     79  64  75  55 /  40  90  90  10
SEARCY AR         75  60  72  53 /  70  90  80  10
MOUNT IDA AR      73  60  73  54 /  70  90  70  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  58  71  53 /  80  90  60  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 600 PM CDT
SATURDAY FOR ZONES ARZ003>007...ARZ012>016...ARZ021>025...
ARZ030>034...ARZ037>039.
&&

29

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
210 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-241000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
210 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF ARKANSAS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA...KEEPING
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN ARKANSAS. ALSO...THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL...SO A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH EXISTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT FOR NORTHERN AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL SECTIONS OF
THE STATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CHANGE SLOWLY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN TO
THE FORECAST MONDAY...AND CONTINUE DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THE REST OF THE NIGHT IN MANY PARTS
OF ARKANSAS.

29

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1132 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     HAIL             NEW SPADRA              35.43N 93.52W
04/23/2004  0.88 INCH        JOHNSON            AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1145 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1133 PM     HAIL             CLARKSVILLE             35.46N 93.47W
04/23/2004  1.00 INCH        JOHNSON            AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

1133 PM     HAIL             5 NNE CLARKSVILLE       35.52N 93.44W
04/23/2004  1.00 INCH        JOHNSON            AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN LUDWIG.

&&

22