Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
240 PM CDT THU JUL  8 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MCS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND
WILL EVENTUALLY HEAD INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHWARD
FROM LOUISIANA. WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING IN NORTHERN COUNTIES AND ALSO IN SOUTH. ONLY
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL SECTIONS OF STATE. ALL
PRECIPITATION PRETTY MUCH GONE BY MIDNIGHT.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/SHEAR AXIS WILL CONTINUE FROM
TEXAS INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO WEST. WITH HIGH NOT QUITE TAKING
OVER YET...WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OVER THE WEEKEND...SHEAR AXIS GONE WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN
CONTROL OF WEATHER PATTERN. ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDER EXPECTED...WITH DRY/HOT CONDITIONS. (46)
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
TODAY. MAIN REASON...H5 RIDGE WILL BE PREDOMINANT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY/SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE NOTED AT THE
SURFACE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARM. SEVERAL WEAKNESSES IN THE UPPER
FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH...BUT WITH MOISTURE BEING MARGINAL...AND LACK
OF A LARGE SCALE FOCUSING MECHANISM...ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
ISOLATED AND DIURNAL IN NATURE.

BY WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD AND MAY EVEN SHOW A
LITTLE RETROGRESSION. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL IMPULSES TO MOVE DOWN IN
THE MEAN FLOW...KEEPING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

BY THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE UPPER LEVELS MAY ALLOW A
SURFACE FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOLUTIONS ARE ALWAYS
A BIT IFFY THIS FAR OUT. WITH PERSISTENT SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...WILL CONTINUE CURRENT POP AND SENSIBLE WEATHER
TRENDS OF DIURNAL ACTIVITY. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES. (57)
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    73  92  73  91 /  20  30  20  20
HARRISON AR       70  89  70  88 /  30  30  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  93  74  91 /  30  30  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     74  92  74  92 /  30  30  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  89  70  88 /  30  30  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     73  92  73  92 /  30  30  20  20
SEARCY AR         73  91  73  90 /  20  30  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      74  93  74  92 /  30  30  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  91  73  90 /  30  30  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

46/57

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
325 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-091000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
325 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SYSTEM ALOFT WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI FROM KANSAS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WAS DEVELOPING...WITH THE LINE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
NORTHERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS...WITH HAIL IN SOME AREAS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF MENA...CONWAY AND HARDY.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE POPPING UP THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH A SLOW MOVEMENT AND A
MOIST ATMOSPHERE...THE STORMS WILL TEND TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.

OVERNIGHT...ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT OR
SO...WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM TEXAS INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS WILL BRING SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALOFT THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...WITH HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.
ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

WHILE STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED...THEY MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
THE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED.

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES FROM THE PLAINS...WHICH HAVE AFFECTED MUCH OF
ARKANSAS RECENTLY...WILL TEND TO MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS A LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES FROM MISSOURI.

46