Flash Flood Warning 78, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
240 PM CDT THU JUL  8 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MCS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND
WILL EVENTUALLY HEAD INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WORKING NORTHWARD
FROM LOUISIANA. WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING IN NORTHERN COUNTIES AND ALSO IN SOUTH. ONLY
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL SECTIONS OF STATE. ALL
PRECIPITATION PRETTY MUCH GONE BY MIDNIGHT.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/SHEAR AXIS WILL CONTINUE FROM
TEXAS INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO WEST. WITH HIGH NOT QUITE TAKING
OVER YET...WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OVER THE WEEKEND...SHEAR AXIS GONE WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN
CONTROL OF WEATHER PATTERN. ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDER EXPECTED...WITH DRY/HOT CONDITIONS. (46)
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
TODAY. MAIN REASON...H5 RIDGE WILL BE PREDOMINANT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY/SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE NOTED AT THE
SURFACE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARM. SEVERAL WEAKNESSES IN THE UPPER
FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH...BUT WITH MOISTURE BEING MARGINAL...AND LACK
OF A LARGE SCALE FOCUSING MECHANISM...ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
ISOLATED AND DIURNAL IN NATURE.

BY WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD AND MAY EVEN SHOW A
LITTLE RETROGRESSION. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL IMPULSES TO MOVE DOWN IN
THE MEAN FLOW...KEEPING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

BY THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE UPPER LEVELS MAY ALLOW A
SURFACE FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOLUTIONS ARE ALWAYS
A BIT IFFY THIS FAR OUT. WITH PERSISTENT SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...WILL CONTINUE CURRENT POP AND SENSIBLE WEATHER
TRENDS OF DIURNAL ACTIVITY. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES. (57)
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    73  92  73  91 /  20  30  20  20
HARRISON AR       70  89  70  88 /  30  30  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  93  74  91 /  30  30  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     74  92  74  92 /  30  30  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  89  70  88 /  30  30  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     73  92  73  92 /  30  30  20  20
SEARCY AR         73  91  73  90 /  20  30  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      74  93  74  92 /  30  30  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  91  73  90 /  30  30  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

46/57

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-091000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT THU JUL 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER OF ARKANSAS THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN
ACROSS ARKANSAS. ISOALTED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP...MOSTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTH CLOSEST TO THE
FRONT.

NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ISOLATED
STORMS COULD ALSO DROP AN INCH OR TWO OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR
ON A SMALL AREA WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS ARKANSAS. HOWEVER A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR PART OF THE WEEKEND.
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OR BOUNDARIES MAY REMAIN IN THE
AREA. THIS ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARM HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL
LEAD TO SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE THAT PARTS OF THE STATE WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS. SHOULD
THIS OCCUR...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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