Flash Flood Warning 105, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
234 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. BIGGEST
DISCREPANCY CONTINUES TO BE IN THE QPF FIELDS WITH GFS DEVELOPING A
BULLS EYE OVER THE RWHILE THE OTHER MODELS NOT REALLY PICKING UP ON.
WITH THE OTHER PARAMETERS BEING IN SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT WILL GO WITH
A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ETA.

FIRST WAVE OF LIGHT RAIN ENDED EARLY TODAY WITH MAIN SHOW STARTING
TO COME IN FROM THE WEST. DEEP CONVECTION FIRED UP OVER EASTERN
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA EARLY IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ON THE NOSE OF
A HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
TROUGH. PRECIPITATION AREA AS FAR EAST AS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
FEATURE CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SPINNING
OVER THE NEW MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER...FAVORABLE DIVERGENT PATTERN ALSO
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR CHANNEL.

CONVECTION FIRING UP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT ACROSS
EASTERN TEXAS. SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST TEXAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LIFT OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN UPPER
SYSTEM. EXPECTING LINE OF STORMS TO SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA UNDER A TORNADO
WATCH UNTIL 03Z AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH A WARM FRONT IN THE
VICINITY TO HELP WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT. SEVERE WEATHER ALREADY
CONFIRMED IN MONTOGERMY COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY MORNING WITH
TROF AXIS PASSING THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
REFLECTION OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
CONSIDERABLE DRY SLOT OVER THE STATE. DRY SLOT FILLS IN RATHER
QUICKLY THOUGH AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW. WILL TAPER OFF POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. RATHER TIGHT
GRADIENT SPELLS A BREEZY DAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY TO BE ESPECIALLY TRICKY
WITH VERY LITTLE WARMING EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH AND MINIMAL WARMING
ELSEWHERE. MAV NUMBERS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE FWC
GUIDANCE AND APPEARS MORE REASONABLE AND AS SUCH WILL LEAN ITS WAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY WITH CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH. FREEZE WARNINGS MAY
NEED TO BE HOISTED. HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY LATE THURSDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS RETURNING LATE BUT COOL CONDITIONS STILL
EXPECTED. WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY. NEXT TROF
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SYSTEM NOT NEARLY AS
IMPRESSIVE AS STORM MOVING THROUGH NOW BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS AROUND TO JUSTIFY SCATTERED POPS. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
COOL.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BY EARLY SUNDAY...THE PREFERRED GFSLR MODEL SHOWS ARKANSAS UNDER A
NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MEAN RH. AN
AREA OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE IS HOWEVER AT THAT TIME EXPECTED TO
BE MOVING ACROSS OKLAHOMA TOWARDS ARKANSAS. BY MONDAY MORNING...A
CUT-OFF H5 LOW HAS DEVELOPED AND DROPPED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...WITH UPPER FLOW OVER ARKANSAS NOW BECOMING MORE OF
A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. THE HIGHER MOISTURE IS NOW MAINLY
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS. A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    50  57  34  52 /  80  70  10  10
HARRISON AR       43  45  27  49 /  90  90  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    50  57  33  52 /  80  60  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     53  60  36  53 /  80  50  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  44  46  28  49 /  90  90  30  10
MONTICELLO AR     55  61  37  54 /  80  40  10  10
SEARCY AR         49  55  33  51 /  80  70  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      50  56  32  51 /  80  60  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   47  52  30  50 /  80  80  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

56/38

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
411 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     HAIL             4 W JESSIEVILLE         34.70N 93.14W
11/23/2004  0.75 INCH        GARLAND            AR   PARK/FOREST SRVC

&&

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