Flash Flood Warning 101, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
234 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SYSTEM PULLING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. BIGGEST
DISCREPANCY CONTINUES TO BE IN THE QPF FIELDS WITH GFS DEVELOPING A
BULLS EYE OVER THE RWHILE THE OTHER MODELS NOT REALLY PICKING UP ON.
WITH THE OTHER PARAMETERS BEING IN SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT WILL GO WITH
A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ETA.

FIRST WAVE OF LIGHT RAIN ENDED EARLY TODAY WITH MAIN SHOW STARTING
TO COME IN FROM THE WEST. DEEP CONVECTION FIRED UP OVER EASTERN
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA EARLY IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ON THE NOSE OF
A HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
TROUGH. PRECIPITATION AREA AS FAR EAST AS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
FEATURE CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SPINNING
OVER THE NEW MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER...FAVORABLE DIVERGENT PATTERN ALSO
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR CHANNEL.

CONVECTION FIRING UP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED OUT ACROSS
EASTERN TEXAS. SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST TEXAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LIFT OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN UPPER
SYSTEM. EXPECTING LINE OF STORMS TO SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA UNDER A TORNADO
WATCH UNTIL 03Z AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH A WARM FRONT IN THE
VICINITY TO HELP WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT. SEVERE WEATHER ALREADY
CONFIRMED IN MONTOGERMY COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY MORNING WITH
TROF AXIS PASSING THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
REFLECTION OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
CONSIDERABLE DRY SLOT OVER THE STATE. DRY SLOT FILLS IN RATHER
QUICKLY THOUGH AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW. WILL TAPER OFF POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. RATHER TIGHT
GRADIENT SPELLS A BREEZY DAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY TO BE ESPECIALLY TRICKY
WITH VERY LITTLE WARMING EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH AND MINIMAL WARMING
ELSEWHERE. MAV NUMBERS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE FWC
GUIDANCE AND APPEARS MORE REASONABLE AND AS SUCH WILL LEAN ITS WAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY WITH CLEARING SKIES. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER THE NORTH. FREEZE WARNINGS MAY
NEED TO BE HOISTED. HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY LATE THURSDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS RETURNING LATE BUT COOL CONDITIONS STILL
EXPECTED. WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER DRY BUT COOL DAY. NEXT TROF
APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SYSTEM NOT NEARLY AS
IMPRESSIVE AS STORM MOVING THROUGH NOW BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS AROUND TO JUSTIFY SCATTERED POPS. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
COOL.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BY EARLY SUNDAY...THE PREFERRED GFSLR MODEL SHOWS ARKANSAS UNDER A
NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MEAN RH. AN
AREA OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE IS HOWEVER AT THAT TIME EXPECTED TO
BE MOVING ACROSS OKLAHOMA TOWARDS ARKANSAS. BY MONDAY MORNING...A
CUT-OFF H5 LOW HAS DEVELOPED AND DROPPED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...WITH UPPER FLOW OVER ARKANSAS NOW BECOMING MORE OF
A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. THE HIGHER MOISTURE IS NOW MAINLY
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS. A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    50  57  34  52 /  80  70  10  10
HARRISON AR       43  45  27  49 /  90  90  20  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    50  57  33  52 /  80  60  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     53  60  36  53 /  80  50  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  44  46  28  49 /  90  90  30  10
MONTICELLO AR     55  61  37  54 /  80  40  10  10
SEARCY AR         49  55  33  51 /  80  70  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      50  56  32  51 /  80  60  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   47  52  30  50 /  80  80  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

56/38

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1030 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-241100-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-
OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-
VAN BUREN-WHITE-YELL-ARKANSAS-JEFFERSON-LONOKE-MONROE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-WOODRUFF-
1030 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF ARKANSAS...AND A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

A WARM FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS LATE
TODAY OR TONIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ALSO...A SQUALL LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS LINE ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES COULD OCCUR WITH THIS.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD END BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
EXPECTED...BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ARKANSAS
ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LAKE WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE REQUIRED.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE INTO ARKANSAS AND MOST OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL HAVE A FREEZE THURSDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.

38

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
139 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     HAIL             NORMAN                  34.46N 93.68W
11/23/2004  1.00 INCH        MONTGOMERY         AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0110 PM     HAIL             MOUNT IDA               34.55N 93.63W
11/23/2004  1.00 INCH        MONTGOMERY         AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0120 PM     HAIL             3 E MOUNT IDA           34.55N 93.58W
11/23/2004  1.75 INCH        MONTGOMERY         AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

46