Alert archive / Virginia / Flash Flood Warnings in 2004
Flash Flood Warning 77, NWS Baltimore/Washington
NWS Baltimore/Washington issued this flash flood warning at Sep 17, 2004, 3:42 PM EDT for Albemarle County, City of Charlottesville, Virginia. It was in force for 3 hr. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 17, 2004, 3:42 PM EDT (19:42 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 17, 2004, 6:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Baltimore/Washington
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
The radar
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 145 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 6:21 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | Crozet, VA | OLD GARTH ROAD FLOODED OUT. |
| Sep 17, 6:21 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | Crozet, VA | OLD GARTH ROAD FLOODED OUT. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
Did it verify
Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this flash flood warning; the first came 159 minutes after it went out.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 120 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 266 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 534 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 53 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 346 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 493 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.6
- Supercell composite
- 3.6
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WGUS51 KLWX 171945 FFWLWX VAC003-540-172245- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 342 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... ALBEMARLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA * UNTIL 645 PM EDT * AT 342 PM EDT...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE AFFECTING THE AREA. RADAR INDICATES THAT UP TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST HOUR IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY. MORE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF THE COUNTY MOVING NORTH. ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 600 PM. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAIN INCLUDE CHARLOTTESVILLE...CROZET AND FREE UNION. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES CARRIED AWAY BY RISING WATER. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. STAY AWAY FROM DRAINAGE DITCHES AND STORM DRAINS AS THEY CAN BECOME DEADLY TORRENTS AFTER HEAVY RAIN. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. LAT...LON 3804 7880 3776 7862 3813 7832 3824 7868 $$ HITCHENS
1 follow-up statement
000 WGUS71 KLWX 172122 FFSLWX VAC003-540-172215- FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 519 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004 ...FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE AND ALBEMARLE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT... AT 519 PM EDT...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WERE CONTINUING TO AFFECT ALBEMARLE COUNTY AND CHARLOTTESVILLE. COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORT HIGH WATER ON ROUTE 29 AT ROUTE 801. HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIT THE COUNTY WITHIN THE HOUR. ANOTHER INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY THROUGH 615 PM. BE ALERT FOR AREAS OF HIGH WATER. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO CROSS SAFELY. REPORT ANY FLOODING TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND ASK THEM TO RELAY THE MESSAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. $$ HITCHENS
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 17, 11:10 AM EDT, 4 hours 32 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 17, 11:10 AM EDT, 4 hours 32 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1110 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004 .UPDATE...IVAN-RELATED PCPN FALLING AT THE FO...AND BLV THIS WL INCRS IN CVRG AS DAY WEARS ON. BOTH ETA AND AVN TRACKS WHEN COMPARED W/ LONG TERM SFC ANLYS SHOW MDLS ARE FINALLY VERIFYING WELL...WHICH MEANS LOW PRES WL BE MVG OUT OF E TN AND ACROSS SRN VA. THIS IS STILL A SCENARIO WHICH COULD GNR8 3-5 IN THE MTNS THRU SAT EVE. FLD WTCH RMNS UNTOUCHED. FLDG ON PTMC APPEARS TO BE A PSBLTY. RFC GUINC SHOWS MDT-MAJOR FLDG PSBL AT SHEPERDSTOWN...PAW.. AND PT OF ROCKS ON SUN. OTHER CONCERN COULD BE SPIN UP TORS IN THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. WE HV BEEN NOTICING SOME ROTATION ON THE 88D...BUT NOT SIG ENUF TO PUT OUT ANY WRNGS. VWP REMAINS IMPRESSIVE W/ SE WINDS AT SFC AND NW ABV 14K FT. WELL HV TO KEEP OUR EYES ON THINGS. ALL PRODUCTS RLSD. WOODY && .LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... AT 12Z SATURDAY 00Z RUNS OF THE ETA AND GFS PLACE THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF IVAN NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN CENTRAL VA AND CENTRAL NC. ETA MOVES THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN SC BY 00Z SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NC AT THAT TIME. PREFER THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM SUGGESTED BY THE GFS GIVEN THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL PA/CENTRAL NY...BUT ANOTHER DEFORMATION ZONE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WHICH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS VA ON SATURDAY. THETA-E RIDGE COINCIDES NICELY WITH DEFORMATION ZONE...AND BELIEVE LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS PLAUSIBLE. STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA MAY PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND END SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY IF ONE WERE TO FOLLOW THE ETA SOLUTION...BUT WITH THE WEAK STEERING PATTERN BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT FOR NOW. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME...AS REMNANTS OF IVAN SLIDE OFF THE SC COAST PER THE GFS AND INTO WESTERN SC PER TPC GUIDANCE. H85 TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 12 C RANGE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...SO EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 6 TO 10 F BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. LONG WAVE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR SHOW VERY SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE EAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SO CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER AND A MODERATION IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JEANNE...AS TPC TRACK ISSUED 11 PM EDT THURSDAY...SEPTEMBER 16...SHOWS JEANNE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE GA/SC BORDER AT 8 PM TUESDAY. SMITH .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 800 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ZONE DCZ001. MD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 800 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ZONES MDZ002>007... MDZ009>011...MDZ013>014...MDZ016>018. VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 800 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ZONES VAZ021... VAZ025>031...VAZ036>042...VAZ050>057. WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 800 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ZONES WVZ048>055. MARINE...NONE. && SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CPW LONG TERM...SMITH
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 17, 11:29 AM EDT, 4 hours 13 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1129 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004 DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042- 050>057-WVZ048>055-180800- ALBEMARLE VA-ALLEGANY MD-ANNE ARUNDEL MD- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA VA-AUGUSTA VA-BERKELEY WV- CALVERT MD-CARROLL MD-CHARLES MD-CLARKE VA-CULPEPER VA- DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-FAIRFAX VA-FAUQUIER VA-FREDERICK VA- FREDERICK MD-GRANT WV-GREENE VA-HAMPSHIRE WV-HARDY WV-HARFORD MD- HIGHLAND VA-HOWARD MD-JEFFERSON WV-KING GEORGE VA-LOUDOUN VA- MADISON VA-MINERAL WV-MONTGOMERY MD-MORGAN WV-NELSON VA- NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-ORANGE VA-PAGE VA-PENDLETON WV- PRINCE GEORGES MD-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA- RAPPAHANNOCK VA-ROCKINGHAM VA-SHENANDOAH VA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE MD- SPOTSYLVANIA VA-ST. MARYS MD-STAFFORD VA-WARREN VA-WASHINGTON MD- 1129 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND WASHINGTON DC. .DAY ONE... A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...THE PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...AND THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF IVAN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE RAIN CONTINUES...SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE POTOMAC RIVER WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE ON SUNDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Sep 17, 12:06 PM EDT, 3 hours 36 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1206 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004 DCZ001-MDZ009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ025>031-036>042-050>056-172200- ALBEMARLE VA-ANNE ARUNDEL MD-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA VA- AUGUSTA VA-CALVERT MD-CHARLES MD-CLARKE VA-CULPEPER VA- DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-FAIRFAX VA-FAUQUIER VA-FREDERICK VA- GREENE VA-HOWARD MD-LOUDOUN VA-MADISON VA-MONTGOMERY MD-NELSON VA- ORANGE VA-PAGE VA-PRINCE GEORGES MD- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-RAPPAHANNOCK VA- ROCKINGHAM VA-SHENANDOAH VA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE MD-SPOTSYLVANIA VA- ST. MARYS MD-STAFFORD VA-WARREN VA- 1206 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004 ...SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS PLACED VIRGINIA...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MARYLAND...AND THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA AS HAVING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE IS SLIDING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. BECAUSE THERE IS SO MUCH SPIN IN THE ATMOSPHERE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW THIS HAS PUT MUCH OF THE AREA AT RISK FOR POSSIBLE TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF CONDITIONS WARRANT A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. ABW
Special weather statement, Sep 17, 1:59 PM EDT, 1 hour 43 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 159 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004 VAZ025-036-171915- AUGUSTA VA-NELSON VA- 159 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004 ...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY... AT 159 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST OF ROANOKE...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO NELSON AND AUGUSTA COUNTIES AFTER 230 PM. THE COMMUNITIES OF SHERANDO...MONTEBELLO... SCHUYLER...SHIPMAN AND WINTERGREEN WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 315 PM EDT. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT. MANNING
Special weather statement, Sep 17, 2:20 PM EDT, 1 hour 22 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 220 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004 VAZ039-171845- MADISON VA- 220 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN WESTERN MADISON COUNTY... AT 220 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER GRAVES MILL...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF 245 PM EDT. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8:00 PM. MANNING
The office that day
Everything else NWS Baltimore/Washington issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2:46 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Nelson | 44 min |
| Sep 17, 2:59 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Albemarle, City of Charlottesville | 61 min |
| Sep 17, 3:07 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Spotsylvania, City of Fredericksburg | 53 min |
| Sep 17, 3:12 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Madison, Rappahannock | 63 min |
| Sep 17, 3:19 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Orange | 41 min |
| Sep 17, 3:32 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Culpeper | 28 min |
| Sep 17, 3:44 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Warren | 46 min |
| Sep 17, 3:50 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Greene | 40 min |
| Sep 17, 3:55 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Fauquier | 65 min |
| Sep 17, 3:59 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Greene | 46 min |
| Sep 17, 4:06 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Madison | 54 min |
| Sep 17, 4:20 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Spotsylvania, Stafford, City of Fredericksburg | 55 min |
| Sep 17, 4:31 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Frederick, City of Winchester | 59 min |
| Sep 17, 4:36 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Page | 39 min |
| Sep 17, 4:39 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Albemarle, City of Charlottesville | 51 min |
| Sep 17, 4:44 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Prince William, City of Manassas, City of Manassas Park | 61 min |
| Sep 17, 4:58 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Fauquier, Loudoun | 62 min |
| Sep 17, 5:09 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Stafford | 36 min |
| Sep 17, 5:11 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Greene | 49 min |
| Sep 17, 5:14 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Orange | 31 min |
| Sep 17, 5:15 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Greene | 30 min |
| Sep 17, 5:23 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Madison | 52 min |
| Sep 17, 5:26 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Page | 64 min |
| Sep 17, 5:30 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Frederick, City of Winchester | 45 min |
| Sep 17, 5:32 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Culpeper | 43 min |
| Sep 17, 5:38 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Fairfax, City of Fairfax | 52 min |
| Sep 17, 5:44 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Prince William, City of Manassas, City of Manassas Park | 16 min |
| Sep 17, 5:49 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | LWX | Madison | 3 hr |
| Sep 17, 5:55 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Loudoun | 65 min |
| Sep 17, 6:05 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Fauquier | 55 min |
| Sep 17, 6:16 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Frederick | 29 min |
| Sep 17, 6:19 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | King George | 56 min |
| Sep 17, 6:22 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | LWX | 113 min | |
| Sep 17, 6:36 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | LWX | Frederick, City of Winchester | 3 hr |
| Sep 17, 7:00 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Clarke | 60 min |
| Sep 17, 7:09 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Culpeper | 66 min |
| Sep 17, 7:11 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Fairfax, Prince William, City of Fairfax, City of Falls Church | 64 min |
| Sep 17, 7:21 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | LWX | Clarke, Culpeper, Fauquier, Orange, Rappahannock, Warren | 3 hr |
| Sep 17, 7:54 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Stafford | 51 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Virginia, 2004Every flash flood warning in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.