Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
735 AM CDT THU JUN  3 2004

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH
...PRIMARILY FROM LUBBOCK TO GUTHRIE...SOUTH TO ASPERMONT THEN
WEST TO TAHOKA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS AREAS THAT
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING. THE TEXAS TECH
MESONET SITE AT ABERNATHY HAS ALREADY RECORED 2.40 INCHES OF RAIN
SINCE 545 THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED
SOUTH INTO LUBBOCK COUNTY AND HAS EXPANDED EASTWARD. CURRENTLY
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN BY LATE MORNING...THUS HAVE ONLY
RUN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1100 AM.

&&
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...
THE WEAK COOL FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA YESTERDAY
SHOULD HELP LOWER TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/NIGHTIME
THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT SUCH
THAT ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE FORECAST
SOUNDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AT LUBBOCK SHOWS A CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE OF 85...WHICH IS NEAR THE FORECAST HIGH. THE LOWER
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE MAY HELP GET A FEW STORMS GOING...HOWEVER
THERE APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF FOCUSING MECHANISM.  AS SUCH...RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.  UPPER FLOW IS BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY...SO WILL HAVE TO
WATCH OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR A POTENTIAL OF STORMS MOVING IN FROM
HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...
00Z MODEL RUN INDICATED NORTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THROUGH THE END WEEKEND. UPPER FLOW THEN BEGINS A TRANSITION
TO WEST SOUTHWEST MONDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. APPEARS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION AND THIS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND DISTURBANCES
RIDING DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WARRANT MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. AGAIN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO/SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
NORTHEAST SECTIONS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND TRY TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE FA ON SUNDAY. APPEARS
FRONT TO STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ON THE SOUTH PLAINS...SO WILL RETAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE HOW
LONGWAVE TROUGH EVOLVES NEXT WEEK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AS MAY
HAVE TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE FA. XI
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA       84  60  91  64 /  20  40  20  20
TULIA        83  62  90  64 /  20  40  20  20
PLAINVIEW    84  63  90  65 /  20  40  20  20
LEVELLAND    85  64  91  68 /  20  30  20  20
LUBBOCK      85  64  91  68 /  70  30  20  20
BROWNFIELD   89  65  92  68 /  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS    85  66  88  68 /  20  40  20  30
SPUR         85  66  90  68 /  70  30  20  20
ASPERMONT    85  68  89  70 /  70  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM FOR TXZ035>038-041>044.

&&

04/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
600 AM CDT THU JUN 3 2004

TXZ021>044-042300-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-
GARZA-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-KENT-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-LYNN-MOTLEY-PARMER-
STONEWALL-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
600 AM CDT THU JUN 3 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

A STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE TO
THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR
ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A SEVERAL WEAK BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS LINGER OVER THE
AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.