Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
458 AM CDT THU JUN 3 2004

.SHORT TERM...
UPDATE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE BREAKING OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...NORTHEAST SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING.  THE DRIVING FORCE APPEARS TO BE A STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL JET AROUND 35-40 KTS INTERACTING WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THUNDERSTORM TOPS ARE RELATIVELY LOW THIS MORNING DUE TO
LIMITED CAPE...SO SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.  EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING AND
THEN DECREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK COOL FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA YESTERDAY
SHOULD HELP LOWER TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/NIGHTIME
THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT SUCH
THAT ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE FORECAST
SOUNDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AT LUBBOCK SHOWS A CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE OF 85...WHICH IS NEAR THE FORECAST HIGH. THE LOWER
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE MAY HELP GET A FEW STORMS GOING...HOWEVER
THERE APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF FOCUSING MECHANISM.  AS SUCH...RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.  UPPER FLOW IS BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY...SO WILL HAVE TO
WATCH OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR A POTENTIAL OF STORMS MOVING IN FROM
HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...
00Z MODEL RUN INDICATED NORTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THROUGH THE END WEEKEND. UPPER FLOW THEN BEGINS A TRANSITION
TO WEST SOUTHWEST MONDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. APPEARS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION AND THIS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND DISTURBANCES
RIDING DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WARRANT MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. AGAIN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO/SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION WITH BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
NORTHEAST SECTIONS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE PANHANDLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND TRY TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE FA ON SUNDAY. APPEARS
FRONT TO STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ON THE SOUTH PLAINS...SO WILL RETAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIP ON SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE HOW
LONGWAVE TROUGH EVOLVES NEXT WEEK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AS MAY
HAVE TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE FA. XI
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA       84  60  91  64 /  20  40  20  20
TULIA        83  62  90  64 /  20  40  20  20
PLAINVIEW    84  63  90  65 /  20  40  20  20
LEVELLAND    85  64  91  68 /  20  30  20  20
LUBBOCK      85  64  91  68 /  20  30  20  20
BROWNFIELD   89  65  92  68 /  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS    85  66  88  68 /  20  40  20  30
SPUR         85  66  90  68 /  20  30  20  20
ASPERMONT    85  68  89  70 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

04/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

TXZ021>044-031630-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-
GARZA-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-KENT-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-LYNN-MOTLEY-PARMER-
STONEWALL-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
1130 AM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIGINATING FROM ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY
MID-AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE
INTO A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE...PRIMARILY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT LINGERS OVER THE AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

02