Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
821 PM CDT SAT MAY  8 2004

.UPDATE...
GROWING AND SLOW MOVING MCS NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES STARTING TO
ACCELERATE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL OUTFLOW THAT
POURED OUT OF NEW MEXICO HIGHLANDS EARLIER. SYSTEM IS NOW TAPPING
INTO INCREASING LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S...CAPES AROUND
1200-1400 J/KG...AND EVEN SOMEWHAT BETTER HELICITY VALUES NEAR
1.00...ACCORDING TO LAPS SURFACE ANALYSES. WITH NEGATIVE SURFACE
BUOYANCY NEAR OR ABOVE -20 J/KG FROM CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS WESTWARD
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES ALMOST CERTAINLY...AND
VERY POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS WELL BY LATE
IN THE EVENING. SYSTEM LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY OUTFLOW
DOMINANT AND THUS MOSTLY ELEVATED LATER IN THE EVENING...BUT MAY YET
REMAIN A HAIL THREAT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO DUE TO THE BETTER CAPE
FIELD. ANYWAY...HAVE UPDATED FOR HIGHER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WESTERN
ZONES...ESPECIALLY NORTHCENTRAL TO WESTCENTRAL ZONES. ALSO HAVE ADDED
ISOLATED SEVERE MENTION FOR ALL WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING. MCQUEEN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

05/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 AM CDT SAT MAY 8 2004

TXZ021>044-091630-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-
GARZA-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-KENT-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-LYNN-MOTLEY-PARMER-
STONEWALL-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
1133 AM CDT SAT MAY 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER EXTREME EASTERN
NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF
THE ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY ORGANIZING INTO
MULTICELL CLUSTER THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE DRYLINE OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. IF
THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE...SOME WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE
GIVEN THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

EJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
747 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     HAIL             BOVINA                  34.52N 102.89W
05/08/2004  0.88 INCH        PARMER             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EJC