Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
330 PM CDT SAT MAY 8 2004

.SHORT TERM...
LATEST MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO INDICATE WEAK 5H RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS
WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EAST TEXAS THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THIS
TO ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA.

DRYLINE REMAINS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO FOR THE MOST PART...WITH
SOME INDICATION THAT IT WILL PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO AND PUSH EAST TOWARDS
WEST TEXAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS THIS EVENING. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM TULIA SOUTH TO TAHOKA THIS EVENING.

UPPER FLOW REMAINS WEAK AND WITH DRYLINE REMAINING ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO/EXTREME WESTERN ZONES OF FA AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES
OVER THE FA...KEEPING NIGHTTIME LOWS UP AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
LOWER/MID 80S MOST AREAS. XI

.LONG TERM...
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAINED MOIST AND UNSTABLE INTO MIDWEEK. PRIMARY
FOCUS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NM BORDER MONDAY BUT MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS BY TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW OVER THE NW CONUS SINKS SWD INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND MID/UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY INCREASE
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. CERTAINLY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AND CAPE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND WITH
INCREASING FLOW...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND SEVERE STORMS. AS TROUGH SINKS FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE DRYLINE FINALLY
BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. ANY CAP ASSOCIATED
WITH EML MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH SUSTAINED SYNOPTIC LIFT AND
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT MIDWEEK WITH APPROACH OF UPPER SYSTEM. MAIN
FORCING LOOKS TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ACCORDING TO GFS ON
THURSDAY WITH STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE EAST. BEST GUESS ON TIMING OF
FRONT LATE IN WEEK IS NOW THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA       58  84  56  84 /  30  20  30  20
TULIA        61  84  59  85 /  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW    62  84  60  85 /  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND    63  85  60  84 /  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK      63  85  60  86 /  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD   64  85  60  86 /  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS    65  85  63  87 /  10  10  10  20
SPUR         65  85  62  86 /  10  10  10  20
ASPERMONT    66  85  64  86 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

11/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 AM CDT SAT MAY 8 2004

TXZ021>044-091630-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-
GARZA-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-KENT-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-LYNN-MOTLEY-PARMER-
STONEWALL-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
1133 AM CDT SAT MAY 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER EXTREME EASTERN
NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF
THE ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY ORGANIZING INTO
MULTICELL CLUSTER THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE DRYLINE OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. IF
THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE...SOME WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE
GIVEN THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

EJC