Severe Thunderstorm Warning 224, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
348 PM CDT THU SEP 30 2004

.SHORT TERM...
AT 19Z SATELLITE INDICATED A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AND OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THERE WERE ALSO A FEW STRONG
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH...ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE SOUTH TO OFF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. THE IMPULSES MOVING
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. ONE IMPULSE CURRENTLY SEEN ON 88D RADAR OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO. OTHER IMPULSES WERE SEEN ON
SATELLITE OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND NEAR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALL THIS WAS
COVERED VERY WELL BY PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE
TO PREVIOUS GRIDS.
08

.LONG TERM...
FLAT RIDGE WILL FOLLOW CURRENT SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT GREATER
INFLUENCE WILL COME FROM A LOW DEEPENING OUT OF NORTHWEST CANADA AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. SOME QUESTION YET ABOUT HOW
MUCH ENERGY WILL FLOW SOUTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS OPPOSED TO
PERHAPS SPLITTING FURTHER WEST TO DEEPEN A SHALLOW IMPULSE FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AS PER DGEX RUN. SUCH A SYSTEM COULD APPROACH
MONDAY ALONG WITH A SECOND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN
TOWARDS INCREASING ENERGY WITH ALL SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEMS...AT
EXPENSE OF NORTHERN SYSTEMS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY
DAMPEN FRONTAL PASSAGES. SO WE HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS TRENDS FOR
COOL SATURDAY...SOMEWHAT BREEZY TO START...AS WELL AS LOW RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY IN THE DAY. THEN SOMEWHAT OF A
BREAK ON SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK WE REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF STRONG SOUTHERN BRANCH
OF THE JET IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS. THIS SYSTEM HAS SHOWN THE GREATEST TRENDS TOWARDS
INTENSIFICATION IN LATEST MODEL RUNS...AND IS BELIEVABLE FROM MOST
POINTS OF VIEW. SO WE HAVE FURTHER TRENDED GRIDS TOWARDS INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LOWERED
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL MORE DEGREES. THIS MAY PROVE TO BE
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN PRODUCING LOW FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...AND
BEARS WATCHING. LATER SHIFTS MAY ALSO NEED TO ADD MENTION OF SHOWERS
FOR MONDAY NIGHT IF ABOVE MENTIONED SHALLOW IMPULSE DOES IN FACT
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. MCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA       52  75  44  63 /  40  10  10  10
TULIA        54  76  46  64 /  40  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW    54  77  47  66 /  40  20  20  10
LEVELLAND    55  78  47  67 /  40  20  20  20
LUBBOCK      55  79  48  67 /  40  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD   57  80  49  68 /  40  20  20  20
CHILDRESS    60  81  49  68 /  50  20  20  10
SPUR         61  82  51  69 /  40  20  30  30
ASPERMONT    63  83  55  71 /  50  20  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

08/05

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