Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
348 PM CDT THU SEP 30 2004

.SHORT TERM...
AT 19Z SATELLITE INDICATED A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AND OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THERE WERE ALSO A FEW STRONG
IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH...ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE SOUTH TO OFF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. THE IMPULSES MOVING
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. ONE IMPULSE CURRENTLY SEEN ON 88D RADAR OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO. OTHER IMPULSES WERE SEEN ON
SATELLITE OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND NEAR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALL THIS WAS
COVERED VERY WELL BY PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE
TO PREVIOUS GRIDS.
08

.LONG TERM...
FLAT RIDGE WILL FOLLOW CURRENT SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT GREATER
INFLUENCE WILL COME FROM A LOW DEEPENING OUT OF NORTHWEST CANADA AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. SOME QUESTION YET ABOUT HOW
MUCH ENERGY WILL FLOW SOUTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS OPPOSED TO
PERHAPS SPLITTING FURTHER WEST TO DEEPEN A SHALLOW IMPULSE FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AS PER DGEX RUN. SUCH A SYSTEM COULD APPROACH
MONDAY ALONG WITH A SECOND FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN
TOWARDS INCREASING ENERGY WITH ALL SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEMS...AT
EXPENSE OF NORTHERN SYSTEMS...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY
DAMPEN FRONTAL PASSAGES. SO WE HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS TRENDS FOR
COOL SATURDAY...SOMEWHAT BREEZY TO START...AS WELL AS LOW RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY IN THE DAY. THEN SOMEWHAT OF A
BREAK ON SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK WE REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF STRONG SOUTHERN BRANCH
OF THE JET IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS. THIS SYSTEM HAS SHOWN THE GREATEST TRENDS TOWARDS
INTENSIFICATION IN LATEST MODEL RUNS...AND IS BELIEVABLE FROM MOST
POINTS OF VIEW. SO WE HAVE FURTHER TRENDED GRIDS TOWARDS INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LOWERED
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL MORE DEGREES. THIS MAY PROVE TO BE
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN PRODUCING LOW FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...AND
BEARS WATCHING. LATER SHIFTS MAY ALSO NEED TO ADD MENTION OF SHOWERS
FOR MONDAY NIGHT IF ABOVE MENTIONED SHALLOW IMPULSE DOES IN FACT
DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. MCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA       52  75  44  63 /  40  10  10  10
TULIA        54  76  46  64 /  40  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW    54  77  47  66 /  40  20  20  10
LEVELLAND    55  78  47  67 /  40  20  20  20
LUBBOCK      55  79  48  67 /  40  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD   57  80  49  68 /  40  20  20  20
CHILDRESS    60  81  49  68 /  50  20  20  10
SPUR         61  82  51  69 /  40  20  30  30
ASPERMONT    63  83  55  71 /  50  20  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

08/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CDT THU SEP 30 2004

TXZ021>044-011630-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-
GARZA-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-KENT-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-LYNN-MOTLEY-PARMER-
STONEWALL-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
1130 AM CDT THU SEP 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
BASIN ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE PLAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING.

FLOODING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. WITH MUCH OF THE AREA HAVING RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK...THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

08

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
633 PM CDT THU SEP 30 2004

TXZ035-010030-
LUBBOCK-
633 PM CDT THU SEP 30 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE CITY OF LUBBOCK...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO THE
CITY OF LUBBOCK THROUGH 7 PM...AND THEN ACROSS THE CITY THROUGH 730
PM. GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS LINE. ALSO HEAVY RAIN...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND MINOR
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
901 PM CDT THU SEP 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 PM     HAIL             3 N BROWNFIELD          33.22N 102.27W
09/30/2004  1.00 INCH        TERRY              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0640 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S BROWNFIELD          33.15N 102.27W
09/30/2004  60 MPH           TERRY              TX   MESONET

            60 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED BY THE TEXAS TECH MESONET SITE.

0701 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BROWNFIELD              33.18N 102.27W
09/30/2004                   TERRY              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            1 TO 2 FEET OF WATER REPORTED IN THE LOST DRAW.

0715 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SPUR                    33.48N 100.85W
09/30/2004                   DICKENS            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            VEHICLE STRANDED IN HIGH WATER.

0755 PM     FLASH FLOOD      10 W TAHOKA             33.16N 101.97W
09/30/2004                   LYNN               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CAR SWEPT OFF ROAD ON HIGHWAY 380.

0804 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SOUTHLAND               33.36N 101.55W
09/30/2004                   GARZA              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING REPORTED IN SOUTHLAND.

0815 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 S GUTHRIE             33.53N 100.32W
09/30/2004  70 MPH           KING               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORECEMENT REPORTED ESTIMATED WINDS OF 60 TO 70+
            MPH.

0835 PM     FLASH FLOOD      TAHOKA                  33.16N 101.79W
09/30/2004                   LYNN               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING REPORTED ON NUMEROUS ROADS ACROSS LYNN COUNTY.

&&

MM/KW