Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1020 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

.UPDATE...
GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER THE
EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALL
MODELS SUGGEST CURRENT SUPERCELL THREAT WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES WILL EVOLVE INTO LARGE MCS AS THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS PROGRESS. AREA RADARS CONFIRM THIS PROCESS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES AS CONVECTION IS FIRING AS FAR WEST NOW AS WESTERN
DEAF SMITH COUNTY. AS USUAL...WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP QPF GRADIENT
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. APPEARS HEAVIEST PRECIP
WILL FALL OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SOME LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE
A FEW INCHES. CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE THE TRANSITION
ZONE BETWEEN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE EAST AND MORE
SCATTERED LIGHTER RAINFALL WEST.

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

JW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
600 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

TXZ021>044-221100-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-
GARZA-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-KENT-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-LYNN-MOTLEY-PARMER-
STONEWALL-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
600 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH
PLAINS...AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THIS AREA IS GENERALLY NEAR AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM DIMMITT TO TAHOKA.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY.  AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL COMBINE WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE THREAT
AREA...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. A
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE LACK OF STRONG WIND SHEAR SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLE...WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE LONGEVITY OF THE STORMS. IN
ADDITION...AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST  ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...AND MAY IMPACT
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RISK AREA OVERNIGHT.  DAMAGING WIND WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE LATE ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
855 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

TXZ021>026-028>032-034>038-220800-
BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-HALE-HALL-
HOCKLEY-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-MOTLEY-PARMER-SWISHER-
855 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 506 FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND A PORTION OF
THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
3 AM AND INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

PARMER... CASTRO... SWISHER... BRISCOE... HALL... CHILDRESS...
LAMB... HALE... FLOYD... MOTLEY... COTTLE... HOCKLEY... LUBBOCK...
CROSBY... DICKENS AND KING.

SOME COMMUNITIES INCLUDED IN THE WATCH ARE...

FRIONA... DIMMITT... TULIA... SILVERTON... MEMPHIS... CHILDRESS...
LITTLEFIELD... PLAINVIEW... FLOYDADA... MATADOR... PADUCAH...
LEVELLAND... LUBBOCK... CROSBYTON... SPUR AND GUTHRIE.

HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 95 STATUTE MILES EAST
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF DALHART TEXAS TO
65 MILES SOUTH OF CHILDRESS TEXAS.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

JW