Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Lubbock, TX

000 
WGUS74 KLUB 270020
FFSLBB
TXC501-270045-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
717 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR YOAKUM COUNTY UNTIL 745 PM
CDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO DETECT HEAVY 
RAINFALL...IN EXCESS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN 
AND CENTRAL YOAKUM COUNTY. RADAR ESTIMATES BETWEEN 3 TO 4 INCHES OF 
RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE THIS MORNING...WITH 2 INCHES OF RAIN REPORTED 
AT THE MESONET SITE 3 MILES NORTH OF PLAINS. 

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE LOW LYING AREAS TO 
BECOME FLOODED. AREAS BETWEEN PLAINS AND DENVER CITY...ESPECIALLY 
ALONG HIGHWAY 214 ARE THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO HAVE FLOODING 
PROBLEMS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS
IMMINENT. MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS
THE ROADWAY. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL
ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
LUBBOCK.

LAT...LON 3337 10268 3298 10260 3296 10297 3322 10305

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
321 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004

.SHORT TERM...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...DEEP
MOISTURE...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AND DYNAMIC LIFT FROM
UPPER LOW. SEE NO REASON FOR THIS PATTERN TO CHANGE AS UPPER LOW IS
PROGGED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO SW TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY. BEST LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER SW COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
AND POINTS SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. COULD SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN NEXT 36 HOURS AS DEEP EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO KEEP COLUMN SATURATED...AND PROVIDE
FOR UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

FEEL THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SHOWERY...AND WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST
AREA...LITTLE THUNDER EXPECTED. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE TODAY...
WITH LIMITED SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6 DEG C/KM. HAVE SEEN PROBLEMS IN CASTRO COUNTY WITH ROAD
CLOSURES AND HEAVY RAIN COCHRAN AS WELL. RAINFALL RATES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR...WITH 0.40 INCHES IN 5 MINUTES AT THE MESONET SITE NEAR
DIMMITT. WITH NW MOVEMENT OF CELLS...AND LINES OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING NW-SE...TRAINING OF ECHOES IS BECOMING A PROBLEM. WILL GO
WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN 2 ROWS OF COUNTIES FOR
TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
RAIN.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STAY COOL ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST MONDAY.
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
WITH CHANCE POPS EAST AND NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES TO GRIDS BEYOND MON AS ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE
FOR THE SPLNS. TSTM CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE AS
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FINALLY LIFT OUT TO OUR SOUTH JUST AS A COLD
FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...REINFORCING NE LOW-LVL FLOW AND PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
TSTMS. AREA WILL SEE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE LOW UP TO H5.

AS TROF AND SFC RIDGE MOVE TO THE EAST ON WED SHTWV RIDGING AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMS...70S AND LOWER 80S. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME TSTM
ACTIVITY AS WET SOIL AND MOIST ATMOS LEADS TO SOME CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...IF WE CAN GET SUFFICIENT HEATING.  HOWEVER...WITH
PROJECTED MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE THINKING IS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLD.

UPR TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SW IS FCST TO APPROACH THE
AREA ON THU. SCT CONVECTION MAY BREAK OUT IN DIFFLUENT MOIST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. DETAILS ON HOW THIS SYS WILL EJECT ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND INTERACT WITH A STRONG SYS DROPPING OUT OF THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND ARE STILL SKETCHY AS
MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES QUITE A BIT IN THIS COMPLICATED PATTERN.
UPSHOT IS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SPLNS ON FRI...PASSAGE
THRU THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SAT MORN DEPICTED IN GRIDS. THE COLD FRONT
APPEARS TO HAVE STRONG ANTICYCLONE BEHIND IT BUILDING DOWN THE EAST
SIDE OF ROCKIES...SO COOL TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA       58  71  56  68 /  90  80  80  40
TULIA        61  72  58  72 /  80  70  70  40
PLAINVIEW    61  72  58  73 /  80  70  70  40
LEVELLAND    60  71  58  73 /  90  80  80  40
LUBBOCK      61  72  58  74 /  80  70  70  40
BROWNFIELD   60  71  59  73 /  90  80  80  40
CHILDRESS    63  78  61  76 /  50  50  50  40
SPUR         64  75  61  77 /  60  70  70  40
ASPERMONT    65  78  60  78 /  50  60  60  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT...THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND SW PANHANDLE
TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034--039-040.

&&

06/33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
420 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004

TXZ021>044-272107-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-
GARZA-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-KENT-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-LYNN-MOTLEY-PARMER-
STONEWALL-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
420 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

FLOODING

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINES WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS VICINITY
EARLIER TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND TRAINING
NATURE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME AREAS OF
FLOODING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY OCCUR THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO WATCH FOR WATER ON ROADWAYS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. RAPIDLY RISING WATER CAN ENGULF A VEHICLE AND ITS OCCUPANTS
AND SWEEP THEM AWAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
428 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 PM     FLOOD            5 W DIMMITT             34.55N 102.40W
09/26/2004                   CASTRO             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FM1055 CLOSED BETWEEN HWY 86 AND FM1524. WATER OVER
            ROADWAYS IN OTHER LOCATIONS ALSO. FLOODING BEGAN APPROX.
            215 PM.

0421 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MORTON                  33.72N 102.76W
09/26/2004                   COCHRAN            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            INTERSECTIONS CLOSED ON PORTIONS OF N.E. 8TH STREET AND
            HWY 114 AT MAIN STREET IN MORTON.

&&

14

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
428 PM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W DIMMITT             34.55N 102.40W
09/26/2004                   CASTRO             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FM1055 CLOSED BETWEEN HWY 86 AND FM1524. WATER OVER
            ROADWAYS IN OTHER LOCATIONS ALSO. FLOODING BEGAN APPROX.
            215 PM.

0421 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MORTON                  33.72N 102.76W
09/26/2004                   COCHRAN            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            INTERSECTIONS CLOSED ON PORTIONS OF N.E. 8TH STREET AND
            HWY 114 AT MAIN STREET IN MORTON.

&&

14