Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
403 AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004

.SHORT TERM...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH THIS MORNING. HEAVIEST ACTIVITY REMAINS OVER
THE W-TX/NM BORDER FROM LEA COUNTY EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO CASTRO AND
PARMER COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THESE AREAS.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING VIGOROUS SLOW MOVING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS NM/W-TX. LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EASTERN U.S SERVING AS A
BLOCKING MECHANISM FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS TROUGH. THE EXPECTED SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE KEY FOCUS FOR A PERSISTENT
AND ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WORKWEEK.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SLOWLY MOVING UPPER CUT-OFF LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
305-310K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ENHANCE TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 80 TO 100 RANGE SOUTHWEST AND WEST TO 70S IN THE CENTRAL
COUNTIES AND 40S EAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL ALSO ADD MORE QPF
TO EXISTING GRIDS TO COVER ONGOING HEAVY RAIN.

SUNDAY MAX TEMPS WILL BE DETERMINANT ON CLOUD COVER AND POP. RIGHT
NOW...KEPT ALL AREAS FROM THE CENTRAL TO WEST COUNTIES UNDER
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S. POINTS EAST OF
THE CAPROCK COULD NOSE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WITH BEST
MOISTURE AXIS REMAINING JUST TO THE WEST. BESIDE POP, TEMP, AND QPF,
KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST INTEGRITY INTACT AS FORECAST REMAINS
PERSISTENT.  WIDELSKI

.LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES AGAIN THIS MORNING AS HANDLING OF UPPER SYSTEM REMAINS
CONSISTENT. SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER THROUGH
TUESDAY WHEN IT APPEARS THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE
FA. PREVIOUS FCST POPS...TEMPS...ETC LOOK FINE WITH ONLY MINOR
MASSAGING. THEN MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH
AND POSITIONING OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW PROGGED INTO THE DESERT SW
MIDWEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS LESS AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM. COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD. THUS INSERTION
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT SEEMS
PRUDENT ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA       67  53  71  54 /  80  50  50  50
TULIA        69  56  72  56 /  70  50  50  50
PLAINVIEW    69  56  72  56 /  70  50  60  50
LEVELLAND    68  55  71  56 /  80  70  60  50
LUBBOCK      69  56  72  56 /  70  60  60  50
BROWNFIELD   68  55  71  57 /  80  70  60  50
CHILDRESS    78  58  78  59 /  60  40  50  50
SPUR         72  59  75  59 /  70  50  60  50
ASPERMONT    77  60  78  58 /  60  50  60  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

17/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
558 AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004

TXZ021>044-271100-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-
GARZA-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-KENT-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-LYNN-MOTLEY-PARMER-
STONEWALL-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
558 AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

FLOODING

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND TRAINING NATURE
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS...AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AREAS. HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED AREAL EXTENT AND SEVERITY
OF ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ADDITIONAL SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND COULD
LEAD TO MORE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.