Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Lubbock, TX

000 
WGUS74 KLUB 281230
FFSLBB
TXC305-281400-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
724 AM CDT WED JUL 28 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 900 AM CDT FOR LYNN
COUNTY...

AT 723 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN CONTINUED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN 
LYNN COUNTY...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 380.

SOME MINOR FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED BY THE TAHOKA SHERIFFS OFFICE 
IN TAHOKA. ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS IS 
ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. 

THESE STORMS ARE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH AND WILL AFFECT THE 
CITY OF TAHOKA...THE COMMUNITY OF GRASSLAND AND RURAL AREAS TO THE 
SOUTH AND EAST OF TAHOKA.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY 
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

LAT...LON 3296 10206 3296 10158 3331 10157 3331 10207

$$

MC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
355 AM CDT WED JUL 28 2004

.SHORT TERM...
A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING WAS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE WARM ADVECTION OVER WEST TEXAS
WITH A LARGE ARE OF RAINFALL LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS AREA OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. WE WILL THEN
HAVE TO WATCH A TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS APPEARS THAT IT WILL
PROGRESS FAIRLY QUICK TO THE EAST WITH RAIN ENDING TOWARDS THURSDAY
MORNING. WEAK UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUD COVER
LINGERING ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CWA FROM HEATING UP MUCH SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE WORDING IN THE ZONES. AM BECOMING MORE CONCERNED
ABOUT SOME FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEASTERN
ZONES...ESPECIALLY FOR TONIGHT AS OUR NEXT AREA OF RAIN TRAVERSES
THE AREA. BELIEVE WE WILL JUST PLACE THIS MENTION IN THE HWO FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN TODAY BUT BELIEVE THAT
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80S...IF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT EASTWARD AS QUICK AS ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...
AS TROUGH AXIS PASSES ON THU...WE WILL SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE SPLNS DURING THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SHIFTING OFF
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BUT HAVE LEFT LOW POPS OVER THE SRN ROLLING
PLAINS THROUGH THE EVE IF THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS SLOWER THAN
PROGGED. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ABOUT A CAT FOR THU...WITH LOWEST
TEMPS OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AS EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN SOCKED IN ALL
DAY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG ON THE CAP
OVERNIGHT/FRI MORN AS MODEL X-SECTIONS SHOW MID/UPR-LVLS DRYING OUT
QUICKLY BEHIND TROF. SHOULD SEE A MUCH WARMER AND DRIER DAY ACROSS
THE SPLNS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW FAIRLY BRISK NW FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MCS TO
MOVE SE OUT OF NE NM/NW PANHANDLES INTO THE SPLNS...AND HAVE
EXPANDED POPS A BIT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MCS POTENTIAL LOOKS LESS
LIKELY SAT NIGHT AS UPR RIDGE NOSES EAST...BUT LEFT SLIGT CHANCE
MAINLY FOR NE COUNTIES...NEXT SHIFT MAY WANT TO REASSESS THIS.

HAVE MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GRIDS AFTER SAT. GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS THAT 500MB RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST BRINGING A WARMING/DRYING
TREND AND VERY WEAK MID-LVL WINDS THAT SHOULD KEEP MOST TSTM
ACTIVITY CONFINED TO MTNS OF NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA       85  59  85  62 /  50  30  10   0
TULIA        81  61  84  65 /  50  70  20  10
PLAINVIEW    82  62  84  65 /  50  70  20  10
LEVELLAND    86  63  85  65 /  50  50  10  10
LUBBOCK      83  64  84  65 /  50  70  20  10
BROWNFIELD   86  65  86  66 /  50  40  20  20
CHILDRESS    81  67  84  67 /  90  70  20  10
SPUR         83  68  84  69 /  90  70  30  20
ASPERMONT    84  70  82  70 / 100  70  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

18/33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
600 AM CDT WED JUL 28 2004

TXZ021>044-292300-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-
GARZA-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-KENT-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-LYNN-MOTLEY-PARMER-
STONEWALL-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
600 AM CDT WED JUL 28 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

FLOODING

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING TODAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MORTON TO ASPERMONT. SEVERAL
BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH OUT OF THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE AREA OF CONCERN TODAY.
THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY THIS EVENING AS THE ACTIVITY
WEAKENS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SEVERE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO MAY
ORGANIZE INTO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA AFTER DARK. THERE IS A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THESE
STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.