Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 346, NWS Louisville, KY

August 4, 2004Fayette County, Scott County, Kentucky

NWS Louisville, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 4, 2004, 3:58 PM EDT for Fayette County, Scott County, Kentucky. It was in force for 37 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Aug 4, 2004, 3:58 PM EDT (19:58 UTC)
Expired: Aug 4, 2004, 4:35 PM EDT
In force: 37 min
Issued by: NWS Louisville, KY
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Fayette County, KY, Scott County, KY

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 114 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Aug 4, 4:16 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	Lexington, KY	POWER LINES DOWN. LARGE LIMBS ACROSS ROADS.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 18 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Aug 4, 2:30 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 156 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 694 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -60 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 886 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 3 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 2 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 5 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KLMK 041958
SVRLMK
KYC067-209-042035-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
356 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  FAYETTE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LEXINGTON
  SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY
  
* UNTIL 435 PM EDT

* AT 353 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
  EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
  FROM NEAR GEORGETOWN TO 15 MILES WEST OF LEXINGTON...OR ALONG A 
  LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF LEXINGTON TO 15 MILES WEST
  OF LEXINGTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LEXINGTON BY 415 PM EDT
  GEORGETOWN BY 405 PM EDT
  NEWTOWN BY 420 PM EDT

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR NEAREST LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
AND HAVE THEM RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN LOUISVILLE.

LAT...LON 3790 8439 3803 8468 3826 8462 3832 8447
      3825 8443 3822 8443 3818 8437 3811 8439
      3807 8430 3804 8431

$$
TWF

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 4, 2:15 PM EDT, 1 hour 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 4, 2:15 PM EDT, 1 hour 43 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
215 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2004

...SHORT TERM FORECAST (TONGT THROUGH SAT)...

SCTD TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON AN OUTFLOW BNDRY SLIDING SWD ACRS SRN
INDIANA ATTM. NMRS OTHER OUTFLOW BNDRYS SEEN IN VIS SATELITE IMAGERY
UPSTREAM. WUD EXPECT ADDITIONAL TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVR WRN PART OF THE
BNDRY ACRS SW INDIANA/NWRN KY WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S/SBCAPES OF 3500 TO 4000 J/KG. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
BE THE FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THAT WILL AFFECT LMK FA
THIS EVE AND OVRNGHT. THUS THE PRIME FOCUS WILL BE TIMING AND EXTENT
OF SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS FA TONIGHT/ EARLY THURSDAY.

MODELS GENERALLY CONSISTENT AND HAVE BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE THIS
RUN. THUS WILL LIMIT TSTM CHC TO EARLY MRNG NRN FA THU AND MRNG IN
THE SOUTH.

PRIMARY THREAT AND TIMING FOR SVR WX APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON TIL MIDNIGHT WITH INSTABILITY MAX AND INCREASING
MAINLY LOW LVL SPEED SHEAR CONDUCIVE TO BOWING SEGMENTS. SVR STM
WATCH LIKELY FOR THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF OUR FA FOR LATE AFTN/EVE.
WILL CONT LIKELY POPS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY WITH ACTIVITY DEPARTING OUR SERN MOST COUNTIES BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

EXT MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXT PD.  NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE TROF EAST/RIDGE WEST
PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS NOAM.  MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATE MON OR EARLY
TUESDAY AND THEN CLEAR THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.  ONLY MINOR CHANGES
WILL BE NEEDED TO ONGOING FCST.  WILL RUN SMALL CHC POPS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY ON WEDNESDAY.  WITH THE
PERSISTENT TROF IN THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MEX NUMBERS ARE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES...SO A BLEND WILL BE
USED HERE.

&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

KIRKPATRICK/JARVIS

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 4, 4:00 AM EDT, 11 hours 58 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
400 AM EDT WED AUG 4 2004

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-050900-
ADAIR KY-ALLEN KY-ANDERSON KY-BARREN KY-BOURBON KY-BOYLE KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-BULLITT KY-BUTLER KY-CASEY KY-CLARK IN-CLARK KY-
CLINTON KY-CRAWFORD IN-CUMBERLAND KY-DUBOIS IN-EDMONSON KY-
FAYETTE KY-FLOYD IN-FRANKLIN KY-GARRARD KY-GRAYSON KY-GREEN KY-
HANCOCK KY-HARDIN KY-HARRISON IN-HARRISON KY-HART KY-HENRY KY-
JEFFERSON IN-JEFFERSON KY-JESSAMINE KY-LARUE KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
MADISON KY-MARION KY-MEADE KY-MERCER KY-METCALFE KY-MONROE KY-
NELSON KY-NICHOLAS KY-OHIO KY-OLDHAM KY-ORANGE IN-PERRY IN-
RUSSELL KY-SCOTT IN-SCOTT KY-SHELBY KY-SIMPSON KY-SPENCER KY-
TAYLOR KY-TRIMBLE KY-WARREN KY-WASHINGTON IN-WASHINGTON KY-
WOODFORD KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARDSTOWN...BOWLING GREEN...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...COLUMBIA...CORYDON...CYNTHIANA...DANVILLE...
ELIZABETHTOWN...FRANKFORT...FRANKLIN...GLASGOW...HARDINSBURG...
HARRODSBURG...JASPER...LEITCHFIELD...LEXINGTON...LOUISVILLE...
NEW ALBANY...RICHMOND...RUSSELLVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...STANFORD...
VERSAILLES...WINCHESTER
400 AM EDT (300 AM CDT) WED AUG 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE OUTLOOK AREA, ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ROUGHLY FROM 4 PM TO MIDNIGHT. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, WITH
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE, AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. WHILE THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA IS UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS, THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
EXIST ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF AN OWENSBORO TO LEXINGTON LINE.

BEFORE ANY STORMS DEVELOP, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY ENTER THE
100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS.
REMEMBER TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF WORKING
OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

AFTER A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK AS HEAT AND HUMIDITY VALUES RISE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

XXV

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 4, 3:42 PM EDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
342 PM EDT WED AUG 04 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHELBYVILLE             38.22N 85.23W
08/04/2004                   SHELBY             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

&&

WAIDLEY/SZAPPANOS

Local storm report, Aug 4, 3:48 PM EDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
348 PM EDT WED AUG 04 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELIZABETHTOWN           37.70N 85.87W
08/04/2004                   HARDIN             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE LIMB ACROSS ROAD IN ELIZABETHTOWN. TREE ALSO
            DOWN IN SPRING MEADOW.

&&

WAIDLEY/SZAPPANOS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Louisville, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 4, 2:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Hardin	47 min
Aug 4, 3:16 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Shelby	29 min
Aug 4, 3:49 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Larue, Marion	41 min
Aug 4, 3:52 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Washington	28 min
Aug 4, 4:11 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Boyle, Mercer	49 min
Aug 4, 4:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Bourbon	31 min
Aug 4, 4:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Garrard	40 min
Aug 4, 5:13 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Madison	32 min
Aug 4, 5:19 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Green	41 min
Aug 4, 5:40 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Adair	35 min
Aug 4, 6:13 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Russell	32 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2004 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.