Severe Thunderstorm Warning 343, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
215 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2004

...SHORT TERM FORECAST (TONGT THROUGH SAT)...

SCTD TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON AN OUTFLOW BNDRY SLIDING SWD ACRS SRN
INDIANA ATTM. NMRS OTHER OUTFLOW BNDRYS SEEN IN VIS SATELITE IMAGERY
UPSTREAM. WUD EXPECT ADDITIONAL TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVR WRN PART OF THE
BNDRY ACRS SW INDIANA/NWRN KY WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S/SBCAPES OF 3500 TO 4000 J/KG. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
BE THE FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THAT WILL AFFECT LMK FA
THIS EVE AND OVRNGHT. THUS THE PRIME FOCUS WILL BE TIMING AND EXTENT
OF SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS FA TONIGHT/ EARLY THURSDAY.

MODELS GENERALLY CONSISTENT AND HAVE BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE THIS
RUN. THUS WILL LIMIT TSTM CHC TO EARLY MRNG NRN FA THU AND MRNG IN
THE SOUTH.

PRIMARY THREAT AND TIMING FOR SVR WX APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON TIL MIDNIGHT WITH INSTABILITY MAX AND INCREASING
MAINLY LOW LVL SPEED SHEAR CONDUCIVE TO BOWING SEGMENTS. SVR STM
WATCH LIKELY FOR THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF OUR FA FOR LATE AFTN/EVE.
WILL CONT LIKELY POPS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY WITH ACTIVITY DEPARTING OUR SERN MOST COUNTIES BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

EXT MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXT PD.  NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS THE TROF EAST/RIDGE WEST
PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS NOAM.  MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH LATE MON OR EARLY
TUESDAY AND THEN CLEAR THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.  ONLY MINOR CHANGES
WILL BE NEEDED TO ONGOING FCST.  WILL RUN SMALL CHC POPS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRY ON WEDNESDAY.  WITH THE
PERSISTENT TROF IN THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MEX NUMBERS ARE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES...SO A BLEND WILL BE
USED HERE.

&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

KIRKPATRICK/JARVIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
400 AM EDT WED AUG 4 2004

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-050900-
ADAIR KY-ALLEN KY-ANDERSON KY-BARREN KY-BOURBON KY-BOYLE KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-BULLITT KY-BUTLER KY-CASEY KY-CLARK IN-CLARK KY-
CLINTON KY-CRAWFORD IN-CUMBERLAND KY-DUBOIS IN-EDMONSON KY-
FAYETTE KY-FLOYD IN-FRANKLIN KY-GARRARD KY-GRAYSON KY-GREEN KY-
HANCOCK KY-HARDIN KY-HARRISON IN-HARRISON KY-HART KY-HENRY KY-
JEFFERSON IN-JEFFERSON KY-JESSAMINE KY-LARUE KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
MADISON KY-MARION KY-MEADE KY-MERCER KY-METCALFE KY-MONROE KY-
NELSON KY-NICHOLAS KY-OHIO KY-OLDHAM KY-ORANGE IN-PERRY IN-
RUSSELL KY-SCOTT IN-SCOTT KY-SHELBY KY-SIMPSON KY-SPENCER KY-
TAYLOR KY-TRIMBLE KY-WARREN KY-WASHINGTON IN-WASHINGTON KY-
WOODFORD KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARDSTOWN...BOWLING GREEN...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...COLUMBIA...CORYDON...CYNTHIANA...DANVILLE...
ELIZABETHTOWN...FRANKFORT...FRANKLIN...GLASGOW...HARDINSBURG...
HARRODSBURG...JASPER...LEITCHFIELD...LEXINGTON...LOUISVILLE...
NEW ALBANY...RICHMOND...RUSSELLVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...STANFORD...
VERSAILLES...WINCHESTER
400 AM EDT (300 AM CDT) WED AUG 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE OUTLOOK AREA, ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ROUGHLY FROM 4 PM TO MIDNIGHT. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, WITH
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE, AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. WHILE THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA IS UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS, THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
EXIST ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF AN OWENSBORO TO LEXINGTON LINE.

BEFORE ANY STORMS DEVELOP, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY ENTER THE
100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS.
REMEMBER TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF WORKING
OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

AFTER A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK AS HEAT AND HUMIDITY VALUES RISE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

XXV