Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
130 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004

.DISCUSSION...DEFINITE DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP THIS AM IN GFS AND ETA
MODELS. BOTH ANALYZE A TROUGH OVER TEXAS WUTH ETA SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
DEEPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS FOR 01/00Z. ETA IS A TAD CLOSER
TO LOCAL ANALYSIS FOR 500MB LEVEL. SECONDLY...ETA QPF VALUES WERE
MORE IN LINE WITH CONVECTION OVER KSAT AREENA THAN THE AVN MODEL.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS CONVECTIVE AREAS SPLITTING WITH NEW AREA FORMING
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH AVN QPF AND HINTED AT BY
ETA QPF AS WELL. BOTH OVERDO THE QPF IN SOUTHERN LA AND MS AT 06Z.
PROBLEM FOR TODAY IS WHICH IS CORRECT IN TIMING AND INTENSITY.
BELIEVE AVN HAS A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEM WITH INTENSITY OF VORT
IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...BUT LOCATION IS GOOD. WILL USE A MIX OF THE TWO
MODELS TO ARRIVE AT FORECAST TIMING AND ONSET OF CONVECTION TODAY.
THIS WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPERATURES AS WELL. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO ETA
LOWER VALUES THERE. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY WITH 2
INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY. LOCAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN 1.6 AT KLCH TO 2.0 AT KLIX THIS AM.

80-100 KT JET IN NORTHERN AR TO OH VALLEY PUTS NORTHERN LA IN RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT THIS AM...SELS HAS ALREADY PICKED UP ON THIS WITH
WATCH FOR NORTHERN PARISHES THIS AM. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS 50 KT
JETLET MOVING FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO TOWARDS SOUTHWEST PASS MS RIVER
WITH COOLING TOPS. EXPECT THIS TO SET OFF CONVECTION OVER THE WATER
TODAY.
REST OF WEEK LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF DAYTINE AND EARLY
EVENING CONVECTION AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PUSH THROUGH THE BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NEXT CHANCE FOR CLEARING WEATHER IS
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT NUMBERS...
MCB 80 66 86 66 / 70 10 60 20
BTR 86 70 88 70 / 70 10 60 10
MSY 88 75 89 73 / 60 10 50 10
GPT 85 74 86 72 / 70 20 50 10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
LA AND MS COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
530 AM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-011700-
AMITE-ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HANCOCK-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-POINTE COUPEE-ST CHARLES-ST HELENA-ST JAMES-
ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
530 AM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
A FEW MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS TO 50 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH AND BECOME ISOLATED AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MAY FORM EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
942 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MAGNOLIA                31.15N 90.46W
06/01/2004                   PIKE               MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ON MUDDY SPRINGS ROAD OFF I-55

&&

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