Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
231 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THERE WAS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
MINNESOTA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTHEAST TO OHIO THEN
SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL TEXAS.  THERE WAS WARM...MOIST AIR ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.  THE RAIN
COOLED AIR OVER SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA HAS
DROPPED HIGH TEMPS IN THAT AREA.  ALTHOUGH THIS MORNINGS KSIL
SOUNDING SHOWED ONLY 1.52 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER...DEEPER MOISTURE
OF WITH VALUES OVER 2 INCHES WAS SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR PCWA
WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  VERY UNSTABLE AIR WAS
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.  THE LOW OVER
MINNESOTA WAS STACKED WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

MODELS SHOW THE FRONT SINKING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI LATER TODAY...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY AND
WEAKENING.   BOTH THE GFS AND ETA SHOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

WINDS HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN LIFTED.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT NUMBERS...
MCB 70 90 73 90 / 50 50 20 30
BTR 73 90 76 90 / 40 50 20 30
MSY 77 89 76 90 / 40 60 10 30
GPT 75 87 75 87 / 40 60 10 30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...TORNADO WATCH LAC005-007-033-037-047-051-063-071-075-077-
     087-089-091-093-095-103-10 5-117-121-125.
MS...TORNADO WATCH MSC005-045-047-059-113-147-157.
LA AND MS COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
730 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-011100-
AMITE-ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HANCOCK-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-POINTE COUPEE-ST CHARLES-ST HELENA-ST JAMES-
ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
730 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...DAMAGING WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...
AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
300 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     HAIL             15 N GULFPORT           30.60N 89.07W
05/31/2004  0.75 INCH        HARRISON           MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL WAS REPORTED IN THE VICINITY OF SAUCIER.

&&

05

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
300 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

MSZ082-312100-
JACKSON-
300 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS JACKSON COUNTY...

AT 300 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
JACKSON COUNTY. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND
25 MPH AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF EPISODES OF HEAVY
RAIN...STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL
HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 400 PM. A TORNADO
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
336 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 15 N NEW ORLEANS        30.19N 90.08W
05/31/2004  39 MPH           XXX                XX   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            PEAK THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN NEAR
            THE MID LAKE OBSERVATION POINT

0235 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N KILN                30.49N 89.43W
05/31/2004                   HANCOCK            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWERLINES REPORTED DOWN NEAR DEDEAUX-ROCKY HILL ROAD

&&