Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS New Orleans, LA

000 
WGUS74 KLIX 091624
FFSNEW
LAC089-091630-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1125 AM CDT SAT OCT 9 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR ST. CHARLES PARISH IS CANCELLED...

...A FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ST CHARLES PARISH THROUGH 
TONIGHT...

...MORE RAIN AND HEAVY SHOWERS NOW OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST COULD 
MOVE INTO ST CHARLES PARISH LATER TODAY...

THE FLOODING FROM THIS MORNINGS HEAVY RAIN HAS DRAINED OFF FROM 
HIGHWAYS IN ST CHARLES PARISH. ONLY ONE ROAD REMAINS CLOSED DUE TO 
TIDAL FLOODING ACCORDING TO ST CHARLES PARISH EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT 
OFFICIALS. 


LAT...LON 3000 9049 3003 9039 3003 9030 2998 9027
      2991 9027 2985 9022 2975 9017 2973 9020
      2973 9032

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
535 AM SAT OCT 9 2004

.DISCUSSION...
DELAYED DISCUSSION THANKS TO TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW AND RESULTANT
COASTAL FLOODING.  LOOKING AT LATEST SATELLITE DATA AND RADAR FEEDS
FROM SLIDELL AND LAKE CHARLES...APPEARS THAT MATTHEW IS DEFINITELY A
HYBRID SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.  EXPECT THE STORM TO TURN INTO A MORE
BAROCLINIC SYSTEM TODAY...DUE TO STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR WRAPPING
INTO THE SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...WILL STILL BE A POTENT RAIN AND WIND
PRODUCER FOR OUR AREA...AS TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD BY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS.  EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALLS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING CONTINUING.  WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE EAST...AS
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST AND SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH CONTINUE.  EXPECT COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH LESSENING OF GRADIENTS
OVERNIGHT...AS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AREA...AND RIDGING WEAKENS TO
THE NORTHEAST.  GOING INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...EXPECT HEAVY RAIN
CHANCES TO DIMINISH...AS DRY MIDLEVEL AIR WRAPS AROUND THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AND INTO OUR AREA.  REDUCED POPS TO LIKELY
TONIGHT...AND CHANCE FOR TOMORROW.  FLOOD THREAT SHOULD DECREASE
DRAMATICALLY TONIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY...AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.  MODELS
INDICATE A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHWEST BY MIDWEEK AND DIVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR
THE WEEKEND.  STRONG FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  LOOKS LIKE LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN...SO
ONLY GOING WITH ISOLATED POPS.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK DRY AS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPS OVER AREA.
&&

.POINT TEMP/POPS...
MCB 70 66 74 65 / ++ 90 70 40
BTR 73 68 76 66 / ++ 80 50 20
MSY 75 71 79 68 / ++ 80 50 20
GPT 74 70 78 67 / ++ 90 60 30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR LA COASTAL LOCATIONS...
LAZ038-040-050-058-060>064-066>070.
FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL SE LA PARISHES...LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR MSZ080.
FLOOD WATCH FOR FOLLOWING MS COUNTIES...MSZ068>071-077-080>082.
SE LA AND MS COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKES.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
630 AM CDT SAT OCT 9 2004

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-091600-
AMITE-ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HANCOCK-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-POINTE COUPEE-ST CHARLES-ST HELENA-ST JAMES-
ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
630 AM CDT SAT 09 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI.  DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE
TROPICAL STORM INTO THE REGION WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING TODAY.  DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO WRAP INTO THE
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...LIMITING THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT
OVERNIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TODAY. THE MAIN HAZARD
WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
OTHERWISE...ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS MOST LAND AREAS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

MARINE...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BAY SAINT LOUIS
MISSISSIPPI TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA INCLUDING THE PARISHES
SURROUNDING LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS THROUGH 11 AM.
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL ALLOW TIDES TO REMAIN NEAR 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WILL CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING TO SOME AREAS
OUTSIDE OF HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES. SEAS WILL BE NEAR 9
FEET...SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AND TIDAL LAKES.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WATERSPOUTS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL THROUGH TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW.  ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.  OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
REPORTS OR OBSERVED FLOODING PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT OR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

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