Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
430 PM CDT FRI OCT 8 2004

.DISCUSSION...
RUNNING LATE TODAY WITH WATER FORTHCOMING. MAIN STORY CONSIST OF 2
LOW SYSTEMS IN THE WRN GULF OF MEX. ONE TO THE N THAT IS YIELDING
ALL OF THE PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS OF YET. THE LOW TO THE N
IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE NNE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING COPIOUS MOISTURE AND RAINFALL WITH THE
LOWER LEVEL ERLY FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW. THE SRN LOW IS WHAT
HAS BEEN NAMED T.S. MATTHEW AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE ENE ACROSS THE
GULF. WILL EXPAND FFA ACROSS ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE LA
COASTLINE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT ALONG WITH MOST OF THE
PRECIP LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL YIELD A BREAK IN ACTIVITY THROUGH MID
WEEK. THEN OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH BY LATE WED INTO EARLY THU
BRINGING OUR FIRST DECENT COLD FRONT OF FALL.

&&

.POINT TEMP/POPS...
MCB 67 71 66 78 / ++ ++ 70 50
BTR 70 74 67 80 / ++ ++ 50 30
MSY 73 77 72 81 / ++ ++ 70 40
GPT 71 76 69 78 / ++ ++ 80 60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR LA COASTAL LOCATIONS...
LAZ038-040-050-058-060>064-066>070.
FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL SE LA PARISHES...LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR MSZ080.
FLOOD WATCH FOR FOLLOWING MS COUNTIES...MSZ068>071-077-080>082.
SE LA AND MS COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING LAKES.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
700 PM CDT FRI OCT 8 2004

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-091100-
AMITE-ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HANCOCK-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-
ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-POINTE COUPEE-ST CHARLES-ST HELENA-ST JAMES-
ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
WALTHALL-WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
700 PM CDT FRI OCT 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW
IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE TROPICAL STORM INTO
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI WILL BRING PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. OTHERWISE...ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MOST LAND
AREAS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

MARINE...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM BAY SAINT LOUIS
MISSISSIPPI TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA INCLUDING THE PARISHES
SURROUNDING LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE TONIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING TO SOME AREAS OUTSIDE
OF HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND TIDAL LAKES. SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO
25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL CAUSE TIDES TO BE TWO TO THREE FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AND SEAS UP TO 9 FEET.

WATERSPOUTS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS MATTHEW MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT
OF FLOODING.

MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR GREATER
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL ALSO CAUSE TIDES TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
REPORTS OR OBSERVED FLOODING PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT OR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

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