Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
310 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

...FORECAST FOCUS NEAR TERM CONVECTION SATURDAY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA. LLJ CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH MC COOK PROFILER COMING IN AT 55KTS IN LOWEST GATE AT
3Z. CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND SHOULD BE
SUSTAINED AS THE LLJ CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
PRETTY HIGH BASED STUFF WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. BETTER MOISTURE EAST
OF A LINE FROM VTN TO BBW WITH TDS IN THE MID 50S. LEFT IN CHANCE
NORTHWEST WITH APPROACH OF FRONT. LOOKS LIKE THINGS SHOULD REALLY
START TO TAKE OFF BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z WHEN FRONT HITS DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL. BEST CAPES TDS JUST TO THE EAST OF
FORECAST AREA. UPPED POPS NORTH CENTRAL.

COULD BE SOME LINGERING CAA SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS H5 LOW
LINGERS OVER NORTHERN PLAINS OPTED TO GO ON THE FAR SIDE AND TOOK
MENTION MOST PRECIP OUT OF FORECAST.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EXTENDED TO BLEND WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.
&&

.SYNOPSIS...
AT H5 TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING THROUGH MISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO CENTRAL CANADA. SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM SOUTHWEST
CANADA ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...WITH WARM FRONT FROM LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST MT TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG
THE WARM FRONT AND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG THE TROUGH.

&&

.LBF...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

POWER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-301030-
ARTHUR-BLAINE-BOYD-BROWN-CHASE-CUSTER-DEUEL-EASTERN CHERRY-FRONTIER-
GARDEN-GARFIELD-GRANT-HAYES-HOLT-HOOKER-KEITH-KEYA PAHA-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LOUP-MCPHERSON-PERKINS-ROCK-SHERIDAN-THOMAS-WESTERN CHERRY-
WHEELER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AINSWORTH...ARNOLD...ARTHUR...BASSETT...
BIG SPRINGS...BREWSTER...BROKEN BOW...BURWELL...CHAPPELL...CURTIS...
GORDON...GRANT...HAY SPRINGS...HAYES CENTER...IMPERIAL...MULLEN...
NORTH PLATTE...ONEILL...OGALLALA...OSHKOSH...RUSHVILLE...SPENCER...
SPRINGVIEW...STAPLETON...TAYLOR...THEDFORD...TRYON AND VALENTINE
1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DANGEROUS AND SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTBREAK IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM BARTLETT IN WHEELER COUNTY TO OCONTO IN CUSTER
COUNTY. A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXIST EAST OF A LINE FROM
MILLS IN KEYA PAHA COUNTY TO ANSELMO IN CUSTER COUNTY TO CURTIS IN
FRONTIER COUNTY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...HOWEVER
THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM WILL BE EAST OF A
LINE FROM SPENCER IN BOYD COUNTY...TO CALLAWAY IN CUSTER COUNTY...AND
CURTIS IN FRONTIER COUNTY. MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND POSSIBILITY A FEW TORNADOES.
THE FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM JUST EAST OF VALENTINE IN CHERRY
COUNTY TO HAYES CENTER IN HAYES COUNTY. SOUTH WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW WARM...MOIST AIR NORTHWEST. AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL STEADILY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITH INCREASING SHEAR TO
RESULT IN SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES
EAST. BY 10 PM CDT THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WITH
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO END. HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FROM 4 PM CDT TO 10 PM
CDT...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO BE EAST OF A LINE FROM MILLS IN
KEYA PAHA COUNTY...TO CALLAWAY IN CUSTER COUNTY...AND CURTIS IN
FRONTIER COUNTY.

TLK/CAB