Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
223 PM CDT SAT JUL 3 2004

...FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIP CHANCES AND ASSOC COVERAGE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
12Z U/A ANALYSIS INDICATES H5 SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM ALONG THE
ND/MT BORDER SWWRD INTO WRN WY. THIS IS REFLECTED ON WV IMAGERY AS A
CIRCULATION CNTR NR SHR WY. TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE INDICATES SOME
RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK HEATING. ACCUS
IN THE NEBR PANHANDLE INDICATIVE OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. QUESTION
IS NOT IF CONVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH FA THIS AFTN EVENING BUT
RATHER DEGREE OF COVERAGE. FEELING IS THAT ACCUS THIS MORNING AND
RAPID CONGESTION OF CU INDICATES PSBL BOUNDARY ALIGNED FROM NEAR
OSHKOSH TO HAYES CENTER WHICH WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND BE A
FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING. WILL MENTION LG HAIL DMG
WINDS THIS EVENING AS 0-6KM SHEAR ADEQUATE AT 30-40KTS. A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AFTN AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. WELL DEVELOPED LEESIDE TROUGH WILL BRING SERLY WINDS AND SB
CAPES 1500-2500 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST FOCUS SHOULD BE FROM THE
PNHDL INTO NC KS BEGINNING SUN AFTN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AREA OF
HIGHEST THETA-E. SEVERE WX AGAIN PSBLE. AS UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES
ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS MONDAY THUNDERSTORM CHC WILL
CONTINUE.CHCS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND END TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND WITH LOWER 70S
NORTH AND UPPER 70S SOUTH ON MONDAY THEN MID 70S EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
AT 00Z FRI WRT H5 HEIGHT FIELDS AS H5 LOW CENTER NEAR ALBERTA
SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. DIFFLUENT REGION ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AS WELL
AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET. CHCS TAIL OFF TO SLIGHT CHC
FRI INTO EARLY SAT. TEMPS TO BE SEASONABLE IN THE MID 80S AS HOTTEST
AIR BOTTLED UP IN THE SWRN U.S.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

ROBERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
315 PM CDT SAT JUL 3 2004

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-040214-
ARTHUR-BLAINE-BOYD-BROWN-CHASE-CUSTER-DEUEL-EASTERN CHERRY-FRONTIER-
GARDEN-GARFIELD-GRANT-HAYES-HOLT-HOOKER-KEITH-KEYA PAHA-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LOUP-MCPHERSON-PERKINS-ROCK-SHERIDAN-THOMAS-WESTERN CHERRY-
WHEELER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AINSWORTH...ARNOLD...ARTHUR...BASSETT...
BIG SPRINGS...BREWSTER...BROKEN BOW...BURWELL...CHAPPELL...CURTIS...
GORDON...GRANT...HAY SPRINGS...HAYES CENTER...IMPERIAL...MULLEN...
NORTH PLATTE...ONEILL...OGALLALA...OSHKOSH...RUSHVILLE...SPENCER...
SPRINGVIEW...STAPLETON...TAYLOR...THEDFORD...TRYON AND VALENTINE
315 PM CDT SAT JUL 3 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER HOWEVER
THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN IS NEAR AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP OVER THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS AND PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SUNDAY...SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA
OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHEAST. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS AND PRODUCE MINOR
FLOODING.

MONDAY...SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY ALSO BE NEEDED SPOTTER ACTIVATION.

MASEK