Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
554 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MESOETA SOUNDINGS DEPICTED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT STORMS INTO EVENING HOURS OF DAY ONE...SO
WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES AS WESTERN EDGE OF SQUALL
LINE MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SOME CELLS STILL
FIRING UP HEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THIS LINE IN NORTHERN REGION OF WATCH
BOX. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR REST OF CWA IN CASE NEW STORMS FIRE
UP BEFORE SUNSET IN STILL MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WENT VERY CLOSE
TO GFS MOS FOR TEMPS FOR THE SHORT TERM...AS A VERY WARM...HUMID AIR
MASS IS GOING TO STAY IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. ANOTHER MCS SHOULD FORM
ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND DIVE
SOUTHWARD ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. A
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS THAT FORM IN
SOUTHERN IN/OH WILL HAVE LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOIST AIR TO FEED OFF OF
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. USED A BLEND
OF THE GFS AND MESOETA MODEL OUTPUT FOR TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIP AND SKY COVER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION...

NORTHERN PLAINS/ROCKIES UPPER VORT SPINNING AND EJECTING ENERGY
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT INTO NE BEGINNING TO PUSH
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS IA/NORTHERN IL/IN NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT.  SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY COMING ACROSS IL IS EXPECTED TO ROUND
TOP OF H5 RIDGE WITH N/S AXIS ACROSS OH VALLEY.  EASTERN EXTENT OF
SFC BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH INTO VA TODAY...BUT STAYING TO OUR NORTH.
WITH THIS...HAVE POP GRADIENT WITH TRACK OF SHORTWAVE AND A FINGER
OF HIGHER POPS ALSO STRETCHING ALONG THE VA BORDER FOR AFTERNOON
TERRAIN CONVECTION.  WITH PWS NEAR 1.8 IN...HEAVY RAIN CAN RESULT
FROM SLOW MOVING STUBBORN SHRA/TS.

HAVE CONTINUED REDUCED POPS INTO THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST
ZONES.  ALTHOUGH H5 RIDING SHOULD BE TAKING PLACE CANT RULE OUT
JUST YET ANY NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. BY SAT
FRONT SHOULD BE LYING THROUGH CWA...AND WILL BE TRIGGER FOR 50/50
CHC POPS.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM DAY TO DAY...ONLY A
DEGREE OR SO COOLER ON THE DAYS WITH INCREASED SKY COVER AND/OR
POPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

1045 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2004

02Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
UNDERNEATH A WAVY FRONT RUNNING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE EARLIER ACTIVITY HAS DIED DOWN...IN A SIMILAR PATTERN TO
LAST EVENING. SOME SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF A TRIGGER SHOULD KEEP
CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE POSSIBLE LATE AS
A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. A BETTER CHANCE WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL MIDDAY FRIDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH CLOSER IN TIME TO PEAK
HEATING. UPDATE TO ZONES...GRIDS AND TABULAR PRODUCTS ALREADY
ISSUED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

511 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2004

.DISCUSSION...
LEFT IN CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT BASED ON 18Z MESOETA RUN. MODEL HAS
AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP STILL LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY. SOUNDINGS STILL UNSTABLE AS WELL THROUGH SUNSET...THIS
COUPLED WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STILL POPPING IN SURROUNDING
CWAS...WANTED TO TRY AND ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS
THAT MIGHT MAKE THEIR WAY INTO JKL CWA. LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...EVENING...AND NIGHT COULD BE SOGGY...AS A COLD FRONT
FINALLY BEGINS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO KENTUCKY. MESOETA
DEPICTS THIS NICELY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE DUE
TO LACK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...SO ONCE STORMS
INITIATE...THEY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF FUEL TO FEED OFF OF. ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIP IS BEING PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KENTUCKY SATURDAY MORNING...ACCORDING TO MESOETA. LOOKS AS IF THIS
SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WILL FOCUS ALONG A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SAGGING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD. WITH WEAK MIDLEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY STORMS THAT FORM ARE
GOING TO BE SLOW MOVING...SO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL EXIST.

1115 AM EDT THU JUN 10 2004

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO MORNING ZONES...OTHER THAN SOME WORDING
CHANGES. LEFT IN LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DEPICTED IN 500 MB AND 700 MB ANALYSES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE UPPER
60S ACROSS MOST OF REGION. THIS ALONG WITH VERY UNSTABLE SOUNDINGS
ALSO PROMPTED LEAVING IN LIKELY POPS...ESPECIALLY AS AFTERNOON
HEATING INCREASES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

RICHEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
505 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 2004

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-121100-
BATH KY-BELL KY-BREATHITT KY-CLAY KY-ELLIOTT KY-ESTILL KY-FLEMING KY-
FLOYD KY-HARLAN KY-JACKSON KY-JOHNSON KY-KNOTT KY-KNOX KY-LAUREL KY-
LEE KY-LESLIE KY-LETCHER KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MARTIN KY-MCCREARY KY-
MENIFEE KY-MONTGOMERY KY-MORGAN KY-OWSLEY KY-PERRY KY-PIKE KY-
POWELL KY-PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-ROWAN KY-WAYNE KY-WHITLEY KY-
WOLFE KY-
505 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST KENTUCKY.  THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

OUDEMAN

KYZ044-050>052-058-059-104-111-010000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
547 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 2004

KYZ044-050>052-058-059-104-111-112215-
BATH KY-ELLIOTT KY-ESTILL KY-FLEMING KY-LEE KY-MONTGOMERY KY-
POWELL KY-ROWAN KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEATTYVILLE...FLEMINGSBURG...IRVINE...
MOREHEAD...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...SANDY HOOK AND STANTON
547 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 2004

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR PEOPLE IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

FLEMING...BATH...ROWAN...ELLIOTT...MONTGOMERY...POWELL...ESTILL AND
LEE.

THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WATCH HAVE MOVED
SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN PART OF THE KENTUCKY.
ACCORDINGLY...THE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE MENTIONED
COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/JKL

GREIF