Flash Flood Warning 77, NWS Jackson, KY

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 122316
FFSJKL
KYC011-069-205-122330-
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
715 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FOR FLEMING...ROWAN AND BATH COUNTIES 
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED...

AT 715 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE HEAVY
RAIN HAS ENDED AND IS NO LONGER CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLOODING...THUS
THE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.

STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.
PLEASE PASS YOUR FLOOD REPORTS TO YOUR NEAREST LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY AND HAVE THEM RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN JACKSON.

LAT...LON 3843 8357 3838 8336 3826 8332 3813 8322
          3804 8352 3801 8377 3815 8387 3817 8398
          3833 8385 3847 8391 3853 8364

$$

GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
510 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2004

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
PART OF CWA...LEAVING MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN WARM SECTOR.
MESOETA WAS OUT TO LUNCH ON THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT THAT IS CURRENTLY
TAKING PLACE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. PUT IN
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. MESOETA/GFS MODELS AGAIN SHOWING MORE RAIN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS ANOTHER MCS FORMS TO THE WEST AND MOVES
EASTERWARD ACROSS THE STATE. LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...COMBINED
WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...SHOULD ACT TO INITIATE MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. WEAK MIDLEVEL WINDS
WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AND FLOODING POTENTIAL.
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THIS SET UP SHOULD ALLOW STORMS THAT DO FORM TO BE
VERY PRECIPITATIN EFFICIENT. FLOODING COULD BE A MAJOR PROBLEM IF
NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OCCURS IN REGIONS HIT HARD THIS EVENING.

.PREV DISCUSSION...

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LIES OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE
FIRED UP OVERNIGHT IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF
THE ACTIVITY BEING JUST TO THE EAST IN WV. THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA ALSO EXPERIENCED THE MOST RAINFALL LAST EVENING...AND HAS
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AS A RESULT OF THE COOLED/SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER. SUSPECT THAT THE FOG IS A BIT PATCHIER IN NATURE TO
THE SOUTHWEST. WILL REFLECT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUD SITUATION IN THE
FORECAST.

ALL MODELS REDEVELOP/JUMP THE FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...LEAVING
EASTERN KY FULLY IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND MOS NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT WX FEATURES ONCE
THE FRONT LEAVES...THINK WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIURNAL NATURE
TO THE PRECIP. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT IT WOULD
NOT TAKE MUCH TO SET SOMETHING OFF EVEN AT NIGHT. WITH WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS AT NIGHT...AM CONCERNED THAT EVEN SMALL
DISTURBANCES COULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE CONVECTION. THUS...HAVE USED A
SMALL TO MID CHANCE POP DURING OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS AND A MID TO
HIGH CHANCE POP DURING AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS COMES INTO PLAY FROM
MONDAY ONWARD. THE GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING...WHILE THE ETA HOLDS THE TRUE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO THE
NORTH. THE GFS SURFACE FEATURES LOOK SUSPECT ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH VERY HEAVY PRECIP...A QUICKLY DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW...AND A SMALL POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER THE MIDWEST.
IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THERE IS TROUBLE HANDLING CONVECTION. AS A
RESULT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE FRONT IS PROPELLED
SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE GFS. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LESS AGGRESSIVE ETA
FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK.  THIS MEANS HIGHER DEW POINTS AND HIGHER POPS
ON TUESDAY THAN THE MEX NUMBERS SHOW.

FOR TEMPS...HAVE USED A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS MOS AND NGM MOS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THINKING THAT GFS MOS HIGH TEMPS MIGHT NOT BE
QUITE WARM ENOUGH.
&&

1010 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 2004

OVERALL...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATE THIS EVENING TO DROP
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED.
ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER...THUNDERSHOWER POPPING UP FROM TIME TO
TIME. BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR CWA...ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY. ADJUSTED POPS
DOWN FOR REST OF OVERNIGHT. ALSO INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN PRECIP. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IN GRIDS...TO COME IN LINE WITH
CURRENT TRENDS IN HOURLY OBS.

UPDATED ZONES ALREADY OUT.

554 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 2004

MESOETA SOUNDINGS DEPICTED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT STORMS INTO EVENING HOURS OF DAY ONE...SO
WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES AS WESTERN EDGE OF SQUALL
LINE MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SOME CELLS STILL
FIRING UP HEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THIS LINE IN NORTHERN REGION OF WATCH
BOX. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR REST OF CWA IN CASE NEW STORMS FIRE
UP BEFORE SUNSET IN STILL MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WENT VERY CLOSE
TO GFS MOS FOR TEMPS FOR THE SHORT TERM...AS A VERY WARM...HUMID AIR
MASS IS GOING TO STAY IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. ANOTHER MCS SHOULD FORM
ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND DIVE
SOUTHWARD ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. A
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS THAT FORM IN
SOUTHERN IN/OH WILL HAVE LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOIST AIR TO FEED OFF OF
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. USED A BLEND
OF THE GFS AND MESOETA MODEL OUTPUT FOR TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIP AND SKY COVER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

RICHEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
919 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 2004

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-131100-
BATH KY-BELL KY-BREATHITT KY-CLAY KY-ELLIOTT KY-ESTILL KY-FLEMING KY-
FLOYD KY-HARLAN KY-JACKSON KY-JOHNSON KY-KNOTT KY-KNOX KY-LAUREL KY-
LEE KY-LESLIE KY-LETCHER KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MARTIN KY-MCCREARY KY-
MENIFEE KY-MONTGOMERY KY-MORGAN KY-OWSLEY KY-PERRY KY-PIKE KY-
POWELL KY-PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-ROWAN KY-WAYNE KY-WHITLEY KY-
WOLFE KY-
919 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH A THREAT OF HIGH
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ASSISTANCE MAY BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
503 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W CROCKETT            37.99N 83.11W
06/12/2004                   MORGAN             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED DEDDING BRANCH ROAD BEGINNING TO
            GET WASHED OUT.

&&

RAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
504 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HAGERHILL               37.79N 82.79W
06/12/2004                   JOHNSON            KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE CHIEF REPORTED 1 FOOT OF WATER OVER BURNT CABIN
            ROAD. WATER WAS OUT OF ITS BANK SURROUNDING A HOME.

0420 PM     FLASH FLOOD      VAN LEAR                37.77N 82.76W
06/12/2004                   JOHNSON            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED ONE FOOT OF WATER OVER HIGHWAY
            302.

&&

RAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
506 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PIKEVILLE               37.48N 82.51W
06/12/2004                   PIKE               KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STATE PLOICE REPORTED FLOODING IN THE ISLAND CREEK AND
            GRAPEVINE CREEK AREAS. HOUSES SURROUNDED BY WATER AND
            VEHICLES WASHED AWAY.

&&

RAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
527 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SE FRENCHBURG         37.90N 83.56W
06/12/2004                   MENIFEE            KY   PUBLIC

            RESIDENT TRAPPED. DRIVEWAY WASHED OUT WITH UP TO EIGHT
            FEET OF FLOWING WATER. WATER WAS OVER FENCE AND LARGE
            LOGS WERE WASHING ACROSS IT.

&&

RAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
528 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CROCKETT                37.99N 83.09W
06/12/2004                   MORGAN             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTED LAUREL FORK ROAD NEAR HIGHWAY
            172 WAS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

RAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
531 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             HI HAT                  37.39N 82.73W
06/12/2004  0.88 INCH        FLOYD              KY   PUBLIC

            PUBILC REPORTED NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

&&

RAY