Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1134 AM EDT WED JUN 2 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING UPDATE...ONLY CHANGES MADE TO MORNING FORECAST WERE UPDATES
TO REMOVE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WORDING.

.DISCUSSION...

ATTM A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXITING SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY INTO TENNESSEE. FOR THE SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. LEANED TOWARDS THE ETA FOR TODAY...IT SEEMED TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION. AFTER A LULL...CONVECTION SHOULD
FIRE BACKUP...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE MAIN
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY IS DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AND LOW WBZ HEIGHTS.

UPPER TROF FINALLY PUSHES THE COLD FRONT OUT OF THE STATE EARLY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING PLEASANT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE
AREA...THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...READINGS SHOULD STAY NEAR NORMAL FOR THE SHORT
TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. MAV/MET NUMBERS ARE ALSO IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT...STAYED A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM.

EXTENDED...LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES.

FORECAST ALREADY OUT.

.PREV DISCUSSIONS...

1144 PM EDT TUE JUN 1 2004

TRAINING VORT LOBES IN THE OHIO VALLEY AS WELL AS A SFC TROUGH AND
APPROACHING COOL FRONT HAVE BEEN PROVIDING A GOOD FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A GENERAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY
HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS CELLS HAVE WORN
THEMSELVES OUT COMING EAST INTO A LESS FAVORABLE AIRMASS. WILL
ADJUST ZONES FOR TEMPS AND ADD SOME PATCHY FOG...WHILE REMOVING
WATCH. WILL STILL MENTION SOME SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...AS ATMOSPHERE HAS NOT BEEN QUITE TAPPED THERE
YET. ZONES OUT SHORTLY.

&&

420 PM EDT TUE JUN 1 2004

A FRONT WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST...COUPLED WITH DECENT JET
STREAK...AND A FEW UPPER LEVEL WIGGLES...IS TRIGGERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS ALREADY
PRODUCING NEAR GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL...WHICH IS UNDERSTANDABLE GIVEN
WBZ IN THE 8K TO 9KFT RANGE. RADAR OPERATOR REPORTED VILS IN THE LOW
40S AND CORE HEIGHT LESS THAN 25KFT WITH THE HAIL PRODUCERS.

THIS FRONT...AND A SUBSEQUENT WAVE THAT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH BY THURSDAY MORNING...WILL KEEP POPS IN THROUGH THEN.
LOOKS LIKE SEVERE THREAT IN SHORT TERM WILL BE FOCUSED
EARLY...MAINLY THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.

SPLIT NOT A CONCERN WITH AMBIENT MOISTURE...AND CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.

FORECAST ALREADY OUT.

&&

1230 PM EDT TUE JUN 1 2004

15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST
WITH LOW PRESSURE DROPPING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES. ON SATELLITE...SO FAR...JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU ARE SEEN
DRIFTING THROUGH KENTUCKY WITH A LARGER CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INTO INDIANA. ON RADAR...THOSE CLOUDS ARE
ACCOMPANYING AN AREA OF GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND WELL TO THE EAST IN WEST VIRGINIA ASSOCIATED
WITH AN EXITING SFC TROUGH. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
DESPITE A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPS
ARE ALSO ON TRACK. ACCORDINGLY...WILL JUST ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO
REMOVE AFTERNOON WORDING IN THE ZONES. MAY ALSO TWEAK THE SKY...TEMP
AND POP GRIDS FOR IFPS AND THE WEB GRAPHICS...BUT NO BIG CHANGES
EXPECTED. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WARNING FOR ESTILL...MORGAN
AND POWELL.

AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
738 AM EDT WED JUN 2 2004

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-031100-
BATH KY-BELL KY-BREATHITT KY-CLAY KY-ELLIOTT KY-ESTILL KY-FLEMING KY-
FLOYD KY-HARLAN KY-JACKSON KY-JOHNSON KY-KNOTT KY-KNOX KY-LAUREL KY-
LEE KY-LESLIE KY-LETCHER KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MARTIN KY-MCCREARY KY-
MENIFEE KY-MONTGOMERY KY-MORGAN KY-OWSLEY KY-PERRY KY-PIKE KY-
POWELL KY-PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-ROWAN KY-WAYNE KY-WHITLEY KY-
WOLFE KY-
738 AM EDT WED JUN 2 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN STORM REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

JM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
141 PM EDT WED JUN 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ROGERS                  37.74N 83.64W
05/31/2004                   WOLFE              KY   NWS STORM SURVEY

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN, 2 BARN ROOFS DAMAGED AND BARN DOOR
            BLOWN IN ON TAR RIDGE ROAD

&&

DBS