Flash Flood Warning 84, NWS Jackson, KY

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 142104
FFSJKL
KYC199-142330-
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
503 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PULASKI COUNTY UNTIL 
730 PM EDT...

AT 459 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT 
THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAD ENDED ACROSS MOST OF PULASKI COUNTY. 
HOWEVER...BECAUSE EARLIER ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY DROPPED OVER ONE AND 
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF 
TIME...EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN.

THE HARDEST HIT AREAS FROM EARLIER RAINS INCLUDE CAINS 
STORE...MAGNUM...POINTER...AND FAUBUGH IN WESTERN PULASKI COUNTY. A 
MAJORITY OF THE RUNOFF FROM THIS RAIN WILL EFFECT THE BASINS OF DRY 
BRANCH... RAINWATER BRANCH...WOLF CREEK...HOUSE FORK CREEK AND BRAY 
BRANCH.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ROADS...FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS
OF CREEKS...STREAMS...AND LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLASH
FLOODING

STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.
PLEASE PASS YOUR FLOOD REPORTS TO YOUR NEAREST LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY AND HAVE THEM RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN JACKSON.

LAT...LON 3700 8469 3697 8475 3703 8491 3711 8491
          3733 8457 3716 8431 3702 8437 3687 8460

$$

PIEPER

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 142318
FFSJKL
KYC199-142330-
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
718 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR PULASKI COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE AT 730 PM EDT...

AT 713 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE HEAVY
RAIN HAS ENDED AND IS NO LONGER CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLOODING...THUS
THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT MORE RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM 
THE WEST DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING...AND THE POTENTIAL OF 
FLOODING EXISTS.

STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.
PLEASE PASS YOUR FLOOD REPORTS TO YOUR NEAREST LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY AND HAVE THEM RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN JACKSON.

LAT...LON 3698 8469 3697 8476 3703 8492 3711 8492
          3724 8475 3736 8455 3717 8432 3700 8432
          3687 8460

$$

PIEPER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1221 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO EXTEND FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 10 PM AND EXTEND THE WATCH UP
TO THE I 64 CORRIDOR...ALSO RAISED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF
THE CWA...PLUS LOWERED TEMPS DOWN A BIT WITH THICK CLOUD COVER
COVERING MOST OF THE CWA. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSIONS...

800 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

THE WET WEATHER CONTINUES. A TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE IS OVER THE REGION
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO APPROACH 2 INCHES TODAY.
BROAD UPPER SUPPORT ON RIGHT SIDE OF ANTICYCLONIC JET (PERIPHERY OF
UPPER RIDGE) SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY
ESPECIALLY SOUTH. THE 00Z ETA AND GFS WERE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNTS OUT OF THE ETA AND GFS ARE NOT
EXCESSIVE...THINK THAT WITH WINDS SO WEAK THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER SO HIGH...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE RISK OF
LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE...HAVE FOLLOWED THE MODEL/S
IDEA OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IN THE SOUTH AND ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH
THERE TODAY. HOWEVER...THE 06Z RUNS HAVE COME IN SUPPORTING HEAVIER
PRECIP EXTENDING FURTHER NORTH...SO THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH
WHERE THE HEAVY PRECIP SETS UP IN CASE THE WATCH NEEDS TO BE
EXPANDED NORTHWARD.

PRECIP SHOULD DWINDLE TONIGHT...WITH CONVECTION SHOWING A DIURNAL
TREND IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AFTER TODAY.

HAVE USED A COMPROMISE OF ETA MOS AND GFS MOS FOR TEMPS...THINKING
THAT THE NGM MOS IS TOO WARM IN THE SOUTH TODAY.

&&

1155 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

SHRA/TSRA HAVE ALL BUT EXITED THE SERN COUNTIES OF OUR CWFA. STORMS
ALONG THE VA BORDER ARE NOT PRODUCING THE COPIOUS RAINS OF THE PAST
AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MIDNIGHT WORDING AND
THE FLOOD WATCH AND ADD AREAS OF FOG. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
CIG/VIS OF 100 AND 1/4 FOR MANY AREAS BUT ESPECIALLY IN OUR SWRN
COUNTIES.

WILL NEED TO EVALUATE GUIDANCE AS IT COMES IN BUT THE NGM INDICATING
OVER 1.5 ADDITIONAL INCHES FOR JKL OVER THE NEXT 18 HR STARTING
AROUND 15/12Z. MAY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TUE AFTERNOON. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM TODAY AND WITH THE
BOUNDARIES LAYING AROUND...SHOULD BE NUMEROUS FOCAL POINTS FOR
RENEWED ACTIVITY AS SOON AS THE SUN HEATS THINGS UP.

&&

549 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
TRAINING ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS KICKED UP AROUND
NOON TODAY ALONG A BOUNDARY IN SE KY AND CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE NE.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
A FRONT DROPPING SOUTH AND REMAINING IN THE AREA...COMBINED WITH
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ALOFT...WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SE U.S. THE ETA SPREADS A BROADER AREA OF PRECIP
FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. LEANED CLOSER TO THE TIMING OF THE
ETA...FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH.

LOOKS LIKE TRENDS ARE POINTING TOWARD A FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY BE
NEARLY STALLED NEAR THE AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE WILL BE NO DYNAMIC FEATURE TO HELP PUSH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY UNTIL AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.  THEREFORE CHANCE POPS HAVE
BEEN INCLUDED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...GENERALLY FOLLOWING A
DIURNAL TREND OF HIGHER POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND LESS TOWARD
EVENINGS.  THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...AN HAVE TAKEN POPS OUT
ACCORDINGLY THERE.
&&

.JKL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT TODAY FOR
ELLIOTT...MORGAN...MENIFEE...JOHNSON...MARTIN...POWELL...MAGOFFIN...W
OLFE...ESTILL...FLOYD...PIKE...LEE...BREATHITT...JACKSON...OWSLEY...R
OCKCASTLE AND KNOTT...PERRY...PULASKI...CLAY...LAUREL... LESLIE...
LETCHER...KNOX...H ARLAN...WAYNE...WHITLEY...MCCREARY AND BELL...
&&

JM/AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
633 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-151100-
BATH KY-BELL KY-BREATHITT KY-CLAY KY-ELLIOTT KY-ESTILL KY-FLEMING KY-
FLOYD KY-HARLAN KY-JACKSON KY-JOHNSON KY-KNOTT KY-KNOX KY-LAUREL KY-
LEE KY-LESLIE KY-LETCHER KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MARTIN KY-MCCREARY KY-
MENIFEE KY-MONTGOMERY KY-MORGAN KY-OWSLEY KY-PERRY KY-PIKE KY-
POWELL KY-PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-ROWAN KY-WAYNE KY-WHITLEY KY-
WOLFE KY-
633 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY...WITH SOME CHANCES CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT.  THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THAT THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK THAT THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE ADDITIONAL THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THEIR IS A DAILY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  AGAIN...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

OUDEMAN