Flash Flood Warning 83, NWS Jackson, KY

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 142028
FFSJKL
KYC175-142300-
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
423 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MORGAN COUNTY UNTIL 
700 PM EDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT AS OF 423 PM 
EDT THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAD EXITED MOST OF MORGAN COUNTY. BECAUSE 
HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS OF THREE INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER 
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MORGAN COUNTY...INCLUDING THE COMMUNITIES OF 
LEISURE...BLAZE AND BLAIRS MILL...RUNOFF WILL REMAIN A FLOODING 
CONCERN.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL LIKELY EFFECT THE BASINS OF LICKING 
RIVER...HARNS BRANCH...AND DEVILS FORK MOST DRAMATICALLY.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ROADS...FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS
OF CREEKS...STREAMS...AND LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLASH
FLOODING

STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.
PLEASE PASS YOUR FLOOD REPORTS TO YOUR NEAREST LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY AND HAVE THEM RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN JACKSON.

LAT...LON 3800 8314 3801 8303 3793 8297 3788 8299
          3790 8314 3774 8326 3786 8350 3795 8344
          3803 8344 3809 8330

$$

PIEPER

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 142250
FFSJKL
KYC175-142300-
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
650 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR MORGAN COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE AT 700 PM EDT...

AT 649 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE HEAVY
RAIN HAS ENDED AND IS NO LONGER CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLOODING. 
ALSO...COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTED THAT THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS ACROSS 
THE COUNTY...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.
PLEASE PASS YOUR FLOOD REPORTS TO YOUR NEAREST LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY AND HAVE THEM RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN JACKSON.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT 
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/JKL.

LAT...LON 3800 8314 3801 8303 3793 8297 3788 8299
          3790 8314 3774 8326 3786 8350 3795 8344
          3803 8344 3809 8330

$$
PIEPER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1221 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO EXTEND FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 10 PM AND EXTEND THE WATCH UP
TO THE I 64 CORRIDOR...ALSO RAISED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF
THE CWA...PLUS LOWERED TEMPS DOWN A BIT WITH THICK CLOUD COVER
COVERING MOST OF THE CWA. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSIONS...

800 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

THE WET WEATHER CONTINUES. A TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE IS OVER THE REGION
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO APPROACH 2 INCHES TODAY.
BROAD UPPER SUPPORT ON RIGHT SIDE OF ANTICYCLONIC JET (PERIPHERY OF
UPPER RIDGE) SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY
ESPECIALLY SOUTH. THE 00Z ETA AND GFS WERE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNTS OUT OF THE ETA AND GFS ARE NOT
EXCESSIVE...THINK THAT WITH WINDS SO WEAK THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER SO HIGH...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE RISK OF
LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE...HAVE FOLLOWED THE MODEL/S
IDEA OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IN THE SOUTH AND ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH
THERE TODAY. HOWEVER...THE 06Z RUNS HAVE COME IN SUPPORTING HEAVIER
PRECIP EXTENDING FURTHER NORTH...SO THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH
WHERE THE HEAVY PRECIP SETS UP IN CASE THE WATCH NEEDS TO BE
EXPANDED NORTHWARD.

PRECIP SHOULD DWINDLE TONIGHT...WITH CONVECTION SHOWING A DIURNAL
TREND IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AFTER TODAY.

HAVE USED A COMPROMISE OF ETA MOS AND GFS MOS FOR TEMPS...THINKING
THAT THE NGM MOS IS TOO WARM IN THE SOUTH TODAY.

&&

1155 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

SHRA/TSRA HAVE ALL BUT EXITED THE SERN COUNTIES OF OUR CWFA. STORMS
ALONG THE VA BORDER ARE NOT PRODUCING THE COPIOUS RAINS OF THE PAST
AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MIDNIGHT WORDING AND
THE FLOOD WATCH AND ADD AREAS OF FOG. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
CIG/VIS OF 100 AND 1/4 FOR MANY AREAS BUT ESPECIALLY IN OUR SWRN
COUNTIES.

WILL NEED TO EVALUATE GUIDANCE AS IT COMES IN BUT THE NGM INDICATING
OVER 1.5 ADDITIONAL INCHES FOR JKL OVER THE NEXT 18 HR STARTING
AROUND 15/12Z. MAY NEED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TUE AFTERNOON. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM TODAY AND WITH THE
BOUNDARIES LAYING AROUND...SHOULD BE NUMEROUS FOCAL POINTS FOR
RENEWED ACTIVITY AS SOON AS THE SUN HEATS THINGS UP.

&&

549 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
TRAINING ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS KICKED UP AROUND
NOON TODAY ALONG A BOUNDARY IN SE KY AND CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE NE.

FOR THE NEAR TERM...CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
A FRONT DROPPING SOUTH AND REMAINING IN THE AREA...COMBINED WITH
PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ALOFT...WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SE U.S. THE ETA SPREADS A BROADER AREA OF PRECIP
FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. LEANED CLOSER TO THE TIMING OF THE
ETA...FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE FRONT DIPS SOUTH.

LOOKS LIKE TRENDS ARE POINTING TOWARD A FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY BE
NEARLY STALLED NEAR THE AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE WILL BE NO DYNAMIC FEATURE TO HELP PUSH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY UNTIL AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.  THEREFORE CHANCE POPS HAVE
BEEN INCLUDED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...GENERALLY FOLLOWING A
DIURNAL TREND OF HIGHER POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND LESS TOWARD
EVENINGS.  THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...AN HAVE TAKEN POPS OUT
ACCORDINGLY THERE.
&&

.JKL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT TODAY FOR
ELLIOTT...MORGAN...MENIFEE...JOHNSON...MARTIN...POWELL...MAGOFFIN...W
OLFE...ESTILL...FLOYD...PIKE...LEE...BREATHITT...JACKSON...OWSLEY...R
OCKCASTLE AND KNOTT...PERRY...PULASKI...CLAY...LAUREL... LESLIE...
LETCHER...KNOX...H ARLAN...WAYNE...WHITLEY...MCCREARY AND BELL...
&&

JM/AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
633 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-151100-
BATH KY-BELL KY-BREATHITT KY-CLAY KY-ELLIOTT KY-ESTILL KY-FLEMING KY-
FLOYD KY-HARLAN KY-JACKSON KY-JOHNSON KY-KNOTT KY-KNOX KY-LAUREL KY-
LEE KY-LESLIE KY-LETCHER KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MARTIN KY-MCCREARY KY-
MENIFEE KY-MONTGOMERY KY-MORGAN KY-OWSLEY KY-PERRY KY-PIKE KY-
POWELL KY-PULASKI KY-ROCKCASTLE KY-ROWAN KY-WAYNE KY-WHITLEY KY-
WOLFE KY-
633 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY...WITH SOME CHANCES CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT.  THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THAT THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK THAT THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE ADDITIONAL THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THEIR IS A DAILY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  AGAIN...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

OUDEMAN