Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
430 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

UPDATED MARINE WARNING SECTION TO INCLUDE SCA CONDS FOR OFSHR WATERS
AS NEW 18Z MODEL RUNS ARE SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS AHEAD OF
THE PRE FRONTAL TSTM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR INLAND SE GA TIL 7 PM EDT...

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR COAST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SE ACROSS NATIONS MID SECTION WITH
A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE PRECEDING IT. WSR 88D SHOWING PREFRONTAL
SQUALL LINE ENTERING SE GA CWA WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING SOUTH
AND EAST OF IT. IN ADDITION...SHALLOW EAST COAST SEABREEZE HAS
FORMED ALONG EAST COAST AND MOVING SLOWLY INLAND. COULD BE SEEING
SEVERE STORMS IN OUR GA CWA NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT HIT THE SEA BREEZE FRONT COULD PRODUCE
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STORMS AS WELL. COLD FRONT STILL POISED TO
MOVE THROUGH SE GA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND NE FL 12Z MONDAY.
BOTH MAV AND MET HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT AND SEE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE. SHOULD SEE CLEARING FROM NW TO SE FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY...BUT THE SHOWERS LIKELY LINGERING ACROSS
SE CWA (MARION...PUTNAM...FLAGLER...) THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT...A TURN TO COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS RUNNING
BELOW NORMAL BOTH TUE AND WED.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN BY
FRIDAY AND EXPECTING MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNAL TYPE CONVECTION  IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS. DID FOLLOW THE MRF MOS
GUIDANCE AND WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY
ONWARD. GENERALLY...IT WILL BE DRIER AND WARMER THAN
NORMAL.
&&

.MARINE...VERY MARGINAL SCEC CONDS OVER THE WATERS AT THE MOMENT WITH
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SCEC CONDS WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT. STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR TSTM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS TO MOVE INTO
THE WATERS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 60 75 49 76 / 80 50 10 10
SSI 63 77 55 73 / 80 80 10 10
JAX 65 77 54 76 / 80 80 10 10
SGJ 67 76 59 73 / 70 80 20 10
GNV 65 77 53 79 / 80 80 10 10
OCF 67 79 55 79 / 80 80 20 10

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ470.
GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ472/474.
&&

PP/JH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
125 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-022300-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
125 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA UNTIL 7 PM EDT...

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON...

PLEASE REFER TO THE SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS CONCERNING
THE MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT EAST OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE STORMS ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS.
ALSO...THERE MAY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...LIKE YESTERDAY...AS A RESULT
OF A SEA BREEZE COLLISION.

IN ADDITION...SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS AND
IN LOW-LYING AREAS. THERE MAY ALSO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN SOME LOW
LYING AREAS WHERE THERE WAS HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRECEDE A COLD FRONT MONDAY. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS IN THE WATCH AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE.
PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

PP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
506 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

FLZ032-022145-
CLAY FL-
506 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CLAY COUNTY FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 506 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 6 MILES SOUTH OF PENNEY FARMS...OR ABOUT
17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FRUIT COVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND PENNEY FARMS...
ASBURY LAKE...DOCTORS INLET AND BELLAIR-MEADOWBROOK TERRACE THROUGH
545 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

TRABERT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
516 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

GAZ136-022145-
WAYNE GA-
516 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHENR WAYNE
COUNTY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 545 PM
EDT...

AT 516 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN JESUP AND GARDI...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
JESUP...GARDI AND DOCTORTOWN THROUGH 545 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF
INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
516 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

GAZ136-022145-
WAYNE GA-
516 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN WAYNE
COUNTY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 545 PM
EDT...

AT 516 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN JESUP AND GARDI...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
JESUP...GARDI AND DOCTORTOWN THROUGH 545 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF
INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
518 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

GAZ153-154-165-166-022200-
COASTAL CAMDEN GA-COASTAL GLYNN GA-INLAND CAMDEN GA-INLAND GLYNN GA-
518 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CAMDEN AND GLYNN
COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 600 PM
EDT...

AT 518 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
15 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRUNSWICK TO 5 MILES EAST OF WOODBINE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
AFFECT AREAS AROUND DOVER BLUFF...DOCK JUNCTION...BOYS
ESTATE...COUNTRY CLUB ESTATES...BRUNSWICK...ST. SIMONS...GLYNN HAVEN
AND SEA ISLAND THROUGH 600 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

HESS