Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR INLAND SE GA TIL 7 PM EDT...

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR COAST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SE ACROSS NATIONS MID SECTION WITH
A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE PRECEDING IT. WSR 88D SHOWING PREFRONTAL
SQUALL LINE ENTERING SE GA CWA WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING SOUTH
AND EAST OF IT. IN ADDITION...SHALLOW EAST COAST SEABREEZE HAS
FORMED ALONG EAST COAST AND MOVING SLOWLY INLAND. COULD BE SEEING
SEVERE STORMS IN OUR GA CWA NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT HIT THE SEA BREEZE FRONT COULD PRODUCE
A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STORMS AS WELL. COLD FRONT STILL POISED TO
MOVE THROUGH SE GA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND NE FL 12Z MONDAY.
BOTH MAV AND MET HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT AND SEE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE. SHOULD SEE CLEARING FROM NW TO SE FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY...BUT THE SHOWERS LIKELY LINGERING ACROSS
SE CWA (MARION...PUTNAM...FLAGLER...) THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT...A TURN TO COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS RUNNING
BELOW NORMAL BOTH TUE AND WED.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN BY
FRIDAY AND EXPECTING MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNAL TYPE CONVECTION  IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS. DID FOLLOW THE MRF MOS
GUIDANCE AND WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY
ONWARD. GENERALLY...IT WILL BE DRIER AND WARMER THAN
NORMAL.
&&

.MARINE...VERY MARGINAL SCEC CONDS OVER THE WATERS AT THE MOMENT WITH
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADVISORY CONDS WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AND MORE THAN LIKELY
CLOSER TO SCEC CONDS ACRS MUCH OF THE CSTL WATERS. STEERING FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR TSTM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS
TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 60 75 49 76 / 80 50 10 10
SSI 63 77 55 73 / 80 80 10 10
JAX 65 77 54 76 / 80 80 10 10
SGJ 67 76 59 73 / 70 80 20 10
GNV 65 77 53 79 / 80 80 10 10
OCF 67 79 55 79 / 80 80 20 10

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FERNANDINA BCH TO FLAGLER BCH 20 TO 60 NM.
GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALTAMAHA TO FERNANDINA BCH 20 TO 60 NM.
&&

PP/JH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
125 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-022300-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
125 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA UNTIL 7 PM EDT...

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON...

PLEASE REFER TO THE SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS CONCERNING
THE MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT EAST OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE STORMS ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS.
ALSO...THERE MAY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...LIKE YESTERDAY...AS A RESULT
OF A SEA BREEZE COLLISION.

IN ADDITION...SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS AND
IN LOW-LYING AREAS. THERE MAY ALSO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN SOME LOW
LYING AREAS WHERE THERE WAS HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRECEDE A COLD FRONT MONDAY. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS IN THE WATCH AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE.
PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

PP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1037 AM EDT SUN MAY 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             KINGSLAND               30.79N 81.66W
05/01/2004  0.75 INCH        CAMDEN             GA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY OFF-DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

GAZ132-133-021900-
COFFEE GA-JEFF DAVIS GA-
230 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COFFEE AND JEFF
DAVIS COUNTIES FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 300
PM EDT...

AT 230 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 2 MILES EAST OF AMBROSE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND AMBROSE...PRIDGEN...BROXTON...WEST GREEN...
SNIPESVILLE AND DENTON THROUGH 300 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH
IN DIAMETER...DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF
45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND PONDING OF WATER CAN BE EXPECTED ON
ROADWAYS...MAINLY ALONG STATE ROAD 268 NORTHEAST OF BROXTON.

HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

GAZ133-021930-
JEFF DAVIS GA-
300 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JEFF DAVIS COUNTY
FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 300 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SNIPESVILLE...OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF BROXTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
AFFECT AREAS AROUND DENTON...SNIPESVILLE AND HAZLEHURST THROUGH 330
PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND PONDING OF WATER CAN BE EXPECTED ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING
AREAS.

HESS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
315 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

GAZ132-021945-
COFFEE GA-
315 PM EDT SUN MAY 2 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COFFEE COUNTY FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 315 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BROXTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND BROXTON AND WEST GREEN
THROUGH 345 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND PONDING OF WATER CAN BE EXPECTED ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING
AREAS.

HESS