Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
204 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

.CURRENTLY...LAST OF SWLY STREAK OF WINDS ROUNDING THE WEAK TROF TO
OUR WEST IS PUSHING SCTD LINE OF TSTMS TOWARD THE JAX METRO AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED THIS
AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...1000-500H HIGH PRES
RIDGE EXTENSION OVER THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA WITH SWLYS TO THE NORTH
ACRS THE JAX CWA WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...WITH A TRANSITION DAY
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE 0-
6KM LAYER. ON THURSDAY THE E TO NE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF FRANCIS STARTS
TO TAKE SHAPE AND WILL ALLOW ATLC SEA BREEZE TO PUSH MUCH FARTHER
INLD THU AFTN. FOR THIS EVENING STILL EXPECTING A FAIRLY GOOD
MERGER OF WCSB/ECSB ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH CONVECTION WINDING
DOWN AFTER SUNSET. SOME PATCHY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH
ONE OR TWO SPOTS SEEING SOME DENSE FOG AGAIN FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF
TIME. FOR WED...MAX TEMPS AGAIN EXPECTED ARND 90 WITH ECSB/WCSB
MEETING ACRS THE CENTER OF THE CWA...WITH POPS NEAR CLIMO VALUES OF
30% TO CLOSE TO 50% WHERE THE SBRZS MERGE. FOR THU...WITH ENELY 0-6
KM FLOW SETTING UP AND A STRONGER ECSB OFF THE ATLC...EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO COME DOWN A NOTCH INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S ACRS THE ERN CWA
WITH TEMPS STILL CLOSE TO 90 ACRS THE WRN CWA. MODELS ARE PUSHING
LINGERING MOISTURE AXIS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD WITH 50-60% POPS ACRS
SERN GA AND 40-50% ACRS NE FL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALL EYES CONTINUE TO BE ON
FRANCES AS 12Z MODEL SUITE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT
AND THE TPC 120HR POSITION VERY CLOSE TO JAX...WILL CONTINUE TO
PLACE HIGH WINDS/HEAVY RAIN IN THE GRIDS...AS POTENTIALLY VERY
DANGEROUS SITUATION UNFOLDS. LATEST 12Z GFS MODELS PUSHES FRANCES TO
THE N OF THE REGION ON LABOR DAY...ALTHOUGH ITS TIMING ON FRANCES
APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 6-12HRS SLOWER THAN THE TPC TRACK. HAVE LEFT
HIGHER THAN CLIMO WINDS IN THE GRIDS FOR MONDAY WITH A DECREASE IN
PCPN CHANCES DOWN TO 30%...TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT DRIER AS
WELL WITH WLY FLOW AND HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE POPS IN THE 30% RANGE
AS WELL.
&&

.MARINE...BOUY 41012(E OF SGJ) BACK IN SERVICE TODAY WITH DATA NOW
AVAILABLE. BOUY 41012 AS WELL AS BOUYS 41008 41010 AND 41009 SHOW LONG
PERIOD SWELLS HAVE ARRIVED FROM FRANCES WITH WAVE PERIOD OF 13 TO 15
SECONDS. WAVE HEIGHTS STILL ONLY AROUND 2 FEET BUT THIS WILL BE ON THE
RISE THURSDAY AS FRANCES APPROACHES. WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN INCREASE THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 70 91 72 86 / 30 50 50 60
SSI 76 88 75 84 / 20 40 30 60
JAX 73 91 74 87 / 20 40 30 50
SGJ 75 88 76 84 / 30 30 30 40
GNV 71 91 71 90 / 20 50 40 40
OCF 72 91 71 91 / 30 50 30 40
&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

HESS/ZIBURA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1112 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-011000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1112 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS AS THEY TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
EXTENDING INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING
TO THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING. ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE AS SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MERGE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY...

HURRICANE FRANCES IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FLORIDA EAST COAST ON
SATURDAY AND IT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST ON SUNDAY. IT MUST BE REMEMBERED THIS IS AN
OUTLOOK AND ERRORS IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD CAN BE AS MUCH AS 325 MILES.
AT THIS TIME...IT WOULD BE PRUDENT LOCAL INTERESTS TAKE REASONABLE
PRECAUTIONS.

SOME SUGGESTED ACTIONS...REVIEW YOUR FAMILYS HURRICANE PLAN.
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR HURRICANE PLANS.

IF THE STORM APPROACHES THE REGION...HIGH TIDES...HEAVY SURF...RIP
CURRENTS AND LARGE BREAKERS AT INLETS WILL DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF
THE STORM. BEACH-FRONT INTERESTS SHOULD PLAN ON SECURING OBJECTS
VULNERABLE TO SURF ACTION PRIOR TO THE HIGH SURF DEVELOPING.

LOCAL AND MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS AND THE
PROGRESS OF THE STORM.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ALTHOUGH MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE IN THE EVENT WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA. PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER OR
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

ECZ/ARS

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