Severe Thunderstorm Warning 228, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
925 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

LO LEVEL SW FLOW A LITTLE LIGHTER TODAY WITH LESS CONVECTION ALONG W
COAST THIS MORNING.  UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL FL WITH POCKET OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MEAN MOST RAIN COVERAGE TODAY WILL OCCUR FROM
SUWANNEE VALLEY INTO SE GA WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE AND WEAK
PVA EXISTS.  12Z JAX SOUNDING SHOWS MODIFIED CAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG
AND WITH DRY AIR ALOFT WILL MEAN ISOLATED STRONG STORMS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. EAST COAST SEABREEZE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INLAND WITH
LIGHTER SW WINDS...REACHING ST. JOHNS RIVER IN NE FL AND I-95 IN SE
GA.

MARINE...LIGHT SW FLOW AND GENTLE SEAS TO CONTINUE TODAY.  LITTLE
CHANGE NEEDED.

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

MZ/JH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1112 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-011000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1112 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS AS THEY TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
EXTENDING INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING
TO THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING. ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE AS SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MERGE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY...

HURRICANE FRANCES IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE FLORIDA EAST COAST ON
SATURDAY AND IT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST ON SUNDAY. IT MUST BE REMEMBERED THIS IS AN
OUTLOOK AND ERRORS IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD CAN BE AS MUCH AS 325 MILES.
AT THIS TIME...IT WOULD BE PRUDENT LOCAL INTERESTS TAKE REASONABLE
PRECAUTIONS.

SOME SUGGESTED ACTIONS...REVIEW YOUR FAMILYS HURRICANE PLAN.
MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR HURRICANE PLANS.

IF THE STORM APPROACHES THE REGION...HIGH TIDES...HEAVY SURF...RIP
CURRENTS AND LARGE BREAKERS AT INLETS WILL DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF
THE STORM. BEACH-FRONT INTERESTS SHOULD PLAN ON SECURING OBJECTS
VULNERABLE TO SURF ACTION PRIOR TO THE HIGH SURF DEVELOPING.

LOCAL AND MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS AND THE
PROGRESS OF THE STORM.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ALTHOUGH MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE IN THE EVENT WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA. PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER OR
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

ECZ/ARS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1252 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

FLZ022-035-036-311730-
ALACHUA FL-COLUMBIA FL-GILCHRIST FL-
1252 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN
ALACHUA...SOUTHERN COLUMBIA AND EASTERN GILCHRIST COUNTIES FOR
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND HAIL VALID UNTIL
130 PM EDT...

AT 1252 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
FORT WHITE TO JUST WEST OF HIGH SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10
MPH. THIS LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
ICHETUCKNEE SPRINGS STATE...FORT WHITE...HIGH SPRINGS...OLENO STATE
PARK AND ALACHUA THROUGH 130 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ENYEDI